# Will Keir Starmer leave office?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 4 contracts — refreshed 16 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/keir-starmer-resign
Updated: 2026-06-25T17:20:49.143Z
Category: geopolitics
Status: active
Closes: 2045-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $703

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 19¢ | −3pp | $703 | kalshi | /markets/will-benjamin-netanyahu-become-prime-minister-of-i-kalshi-kxisraelpm-26oct27-bnet |
| Naftali Bennett | 18¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-naftali-bennett-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-kalshi-kxnextisraelpm-45jan01-nben |
| Israel Katz | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-israel-katz-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-isr-kalshi-kxnextisraelpm-45jan01-ikat |
| Naftali Bennett | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-naftali-bennett-become-prime-minister-of-isra-kalshi-kxisraelpm-26oct27-nben |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 41 |
| 2026-06-11 | 34 |
| 2026-06-18 | 22 |
| 2026-06-25 | 17 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Benjamin Netanyahu −7pp 31→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Naftali Bennett −7pp 28→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Naftali Bennett −6pp 20→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Naftali Bennett −5pp 21→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Benjamin Netanyahu +3pp 29→32¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/keir-starmer-resign
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=keir-starmer-resign

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.