# Will Emily Salsbury win the 2026 election for Mayor of Kelowna, British Columbia

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 21% across 2 contracts — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kelownamayor
Updated: 2026-09-25T08:20:51.563Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-10-17

## Headline

- Probability: 21% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Cannan | 3¢ | −17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ron-cannan-win-the-2026-election-for-mayor-of-kalshi-kxkelownamayor-26oct17-rcan |
| Tom Dyas | 38¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tom-dyas-win-the-2026-election-for-mayor-of-k-kalshi-kxkelownamayor-26oct17-tdya |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 43 |
| 2026-09-11 | 43 |
| 2026-09-18 | 24 |
| 2026-09-25 | 4 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-19 · Ron Cannan +40pp 11→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Tom Dyas +35pp 1→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-25 · Ron Cannan −17pp 21→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-24 · Ron Cannan −16pp 37→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · Ron Cannan −14pp 51→37¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 21% probability indicates market participants assess Emily Salsbury has roughly a one-in-five chance of winning Kelowna's mayoral election. The prediction reflects a crowded field where Ron Cannan leads at 62%, suggesting Salsbury faces significant competition. Her chances would shift based on campaign momentum, voter engagement in her ward or demographic groups, and any changes in candidate viability—particularly if frontrunners withdraw or consolidate support differently. The election outcome will be determined on voting day in October 2026, when actual ballots are cast. Until then, movements in this probability will likely track local media coverage, candidate announcements, and any public polling or endorsements that emerge during the campaign period.

### Key factors

- Ron Cannan holds 62% implied probability compared to Salsbury's 21%, indicating he is the clear frontrunner with nearly three times her market probability
- The presence of multiple viable candidates (Gray at 5%, Dyas at 15%, Salsbury at 21%) suggests vote splitting could occur, potentially benefiting any candidate perceived as gaining momentum
- Kelowna mayoral elections are primarily decided by local issues, incumbent performance, and community engagement—factors that may shift significantly between now and October 2026
- Trading volume on Salsbury's contract is low ($1 in 24h volume), meaning the 21% price may not reflect deep market liquidity or comprehensive analysis
- The election date in October 2026 provides a specific resolution point; campaign developments, endorsements, and any candidate withdrawals before then would be primary catalysts for probability movement

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kelownamayor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kelownamayor
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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