# Will Alistair Docherty win the Colonial Life Charity Classic

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 4% across 12 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kftour
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.864Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-14

## Headline

- Probability: 4% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $24K
- Resolved: Cole Sherwood

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blades Brown | 10¢ | +2pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-blades-brown-win-the-unc-health-championship-kalshi-kxkftour-unhc26-bbro |
| Doc Redman | 3¢ | — | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-doc-redman-win-the-unc-health-championship-do-kalshi-kxkftour-unhc26-dred |
| Seung-Yul Noh | 3¢ | — | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-seung-yul-noh-win-the-unc-health-championship-kalshi-kxkftour-unhc26-snoh |
| Carson Young | 4¢ | −4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-carson-young-win-the-unc-health-championship-kalshi-kxkftour-unhc26-cyou |
| Hunter Eichhorn | 3¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-hunter-eichhorn-win-the-unc-health-championsh-kalshi-kxkftour-unhc26-heic |
| Noah Goodwin | 7¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-noah-goodwin-win-the-unc-health-championship-kalshi-kxkftour-unhc26-ngoo |
| Jeremy Paul | 3¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-jeremy-paul-win-the-unc-health-championship-j-kalshi-kxkftour-unhc26-jpau |
| John Pak | 4¢ | — | $881 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-pak-win-the-unc-health-championship-john-kalshi-kxkftour-unhc26-jpak |
| Jackson Suber | 3¢ | — | $794 | kalshi | /markets/will-jackson-suber-win-the-unc-health-championship-kalshi-kxkftour-unhc26-jsub |
| Ian Gilligan | 3¢ | — | $743 | kalshi | /markets/will-ian-gilligan-win-the-unc-health-championship-kalshi-kxkftour-unhc26-igil |
| Dylan Menante | 3¢ | ±0 | $444 | kalshi | /markets/will-dylan-menante-win-the-unc-health-championship-kalshi-kxkftour-unhc26-dmen |
| Chan Kim | 3¢ | — | $233 | kalshi | /markets/will-chan-kim-win-the-unc-health-championship-chan-kalshi-kxkftour-unhc26-ckim |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 5 |
| 2026-05-26 | 6 |
| 2026-05-27 | 6 |
| 2026-05-28 | 3 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · Carson Young −4pp 7→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the market's assessment that Alistair Docherty has a 13% chance of winning the Colonial Life Charity Classic, a PGA Tour event. The relatively low probability reflects Docherty's current position in the competitive field; the probability would rise with strong recent tournament results or fall if other competitors demonstrate superior form heading into the event. The primary uncertainty resolver is the tournament itself, which will definitively determine the winner and collapse all probabilities to either 0% or 100%. Current trading activity shows modest interest ($29 in 24-hour volume), suggesting limited market conviction around this specific outcome compared to competing favorites like Ryan Blaum (25%) and Blades Brown (11%).

### Key factors

- Docherty's recent PGA Tour performance and world ranking relative to the field competing in this specific event
- Comparison of implied probability (13%) to historical win rates for players with similar rankings and recent form
- The Colonial's course setup and historical data on which player profiles tend to perform well there
- Betting volume and consensus odds from other major sportsbooks outside Kalshi to identify potential mispricings
- Docherty's status as healthy and confirmed to be competing in the tournament on the announced dates

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kftour
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kftour

## License

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