# Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...

> June 30 leads at 12%, runner-up 8% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:48.892Z
Category: general · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: June 30 at 12%
- Runner-up: May 31 at 8%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $194K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 12¢ | ±0 | $28K | polymarket | /markets/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-ju-polymarket-0x6897736d782ce70f47126dfcec6669073f563d6e757e60bc61c0367370d6f73e |
| May 31 | 8¢ | +1pp | $165K | polymarket | /markets/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-ma-polymarket-0xa1d97efb8a19de58d995edf58b882c4f99ef356c8a564af8daf888a7610edea1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | June 30 | May 31 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 18 | 15 |
| 2026-04-19 | 17 | 15 |
| 2026-04-25 | 16 | 13 |
| 2026-04-26 | 16 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 12 | 9 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · June 30 −9pp 21→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · May 31 +6pp 12→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · May 31 −6pp 18→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · June 30 +5pp 16→21¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Iran will lose control of Kharg Island—a major oil export hub in the Persian Gulf—by June 30, 2026. At 12%, traders assess this as unlikely within the next two months, suggesting confidence in the status quo or belief that any transition would take longer. The current pricing reflects geopolitical tensions, regional military capabilities, and Iran's strategic importance of the island. The main factors keeping the probability low are the substantial military resources required to seize and hold the island, and the absence of imminent military operations publicly signaled by potential actors. Resolution depends on actual control changes verified through credible reporting; any major escalation in Gulf tensions or explicit military action by regional or external powers could substantially shift expectations upward.

### Key factors

- Kharg Island currently hosts Iran's primary crude oil export terminal and is defended by Iranian naval and air assets; seizure would require sustained military capability and face significant logistical resistance
- No credible intelligence reports or official statements from regional or Western military sources indicate active plans or preparation for an operation against the island as of May 2026
- The May 31 contract trades at 8% versus June 30 at 12%, indicating markets price a near-zero probability of loss of control in the next 28 days specifically
- Recent precedent for control transitions in the region (e.g., islands or disputed territories) typically involves months of escalation or diplomatic signaling before any military action
- Any loss of control would require unambiguous third-party verification (military, news, or official sources) to resolve the contract, making accidental or temporary disruptions unlikely to trigger settlement

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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