# Kimi K3 released by…

> June 30 leads at 16%, runner-up 9% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kimi-k3-released
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:43.462Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: June 30 at 16%
- Runner-up: May 31 at 9%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $337

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 16¢ | −5pp | $245 | polymarket | /markets/kimi-k3-released-by-june-30-polymarket-0xd357984e8f297cddb0d877592b1ae67455c7f624a6123a98d636bdc76149ff5f |
| May 31 | 9¢ | −6pp | $92 | polymarket | /markets/kimi-k3-released-by-may-31-polymarket-0x049136c0b43ffdeb87b809d86b1e7118385247c99b4f4ed2e5489e07658badfe |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | June 30 | May 31 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 50 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 51 | 42 |
| 2026-05-02 | 42 | 17 |
| 2026-05-09 | 16 | 11 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · June 30 −18pp 41→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · May 31 −6pp 17→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · June 30 −5pp 21→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · June 30 −3pp 45→42¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 41% probability reflects market expectation that Kimi K3 will be released by June 30, 2026. The estimate appears driven by recent activity in AI model releases and typical development timelines for major language model updates. The main uncertainty centers on whether Kimi's development schedule compresses into the next two months or extends beyond this window. Claude 5's higher market pricing (28-42¢ for June 30 release) suggests traders view it as more likely to arrive first, creating competitive pressure on release timing. The resolution date of June 30, 2026 is approximately 58 days away, meaning any official announcement or leak about launch dates would significantly shift probabilities. Current trading volume remains modest, with the Kimi K3 contract averaging $116 in daily volume, suggesting limited liquidity and potential for price movement on new information.

### Key factors

- Kimi K3 June 30 contract trades at 42¢ while the May 31 deadline trades at 18¢, indicating markets assign roughly 2.3x higher probability to the later date
- Claude 5 June 30 contract prices at 28¢, nearly matching Kimi K3's 42¢, suggesting traders view these as competing release windows rather than both occurring
- Trading volume on these contracts ($100-$133 daily) is substantially lower than Claude 5 May 31 ($3,669 daily), indicating less market confidence in Kimi timing estimates
- No officially announced release date exists for Kimi K3, meaning current probabilities rely on inference from development patterns and competitive timelines
- The 58-day window to resolution means the probability is sensitive to any credible announcements, leaks, or public statements about launch schedules

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kimi-k3-released
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kimi-k3-released

## License

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