# K-League

> Winner: Bucheon FC 1995 leads at 49%, runner-up 48% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kleague
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:35:30.616Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-20

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: Bucheon FC 1995 at 49%
- Runner-up: Winner: Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors at 48%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Bucheon FC 1995 | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/k-league-winner-bucheon-fc-1995-polymarket-0xfbdb482931c4dc3d27b8b609cbe9ef2c34449acaaf527cb805dffa037047a3df |
| Winner: Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/k-league-winner-jeonbuk-hyundai-motors-polymarket-0xced4dfde509c7b914bd9515ced75d99aa6ed10858704cf4f3a55fbbab0c9e508 |
| Winner: Gwangju FC | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/k-league-winner-gwangju-fc-polymarket-0x0a21bae78039d6b7c080545db6e95037a4155ed5c1d80a4d61211b9782580f07 |
| Winner: FC Seoul | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/k-league-winner-fc-seoul-polymarket-0x9ed8d15b7ecb4746c9cec5aaec51c89469e6560889724331fa2ba993ef3a5c7e |
| Winner: Ulsan HD | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/k-league-winner-ulsan-hd-polymarket-0x92558da0b9ed9eaa22e28d2c6df72ec87c8173928b204ef9c5ed39be039ca36e |
| Winner: Pohang Steelers | 47¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/k-league-winner-pohang-steelers-polymarket-0x5640ae979c8ee8bed266db3f90048abbab20e9215d1983c3ec83dbb4851451f5 |
| Winner: Daejeon Hana Citizen | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/k-league-winner-daejeon-hana-citizen-polymarket-0xc8fac77c405c84cd56c294fc8e54661412693a57529576cea30f82728b94b8e0 |
| Winner: Gangwon FC | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/k-league-winner-gangwon-fc-polymarket-0x8960b5453b33c5cfb2fdeaa9ea79c51fcdb6e0cdc2fd9af337f27d79bb4ef996 |
| Winner: Gimcheon Sangmu | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/k-league-winner-gimcheon-sangmu-polymarket-0xc5f56dc479174ea9ad4d62c8c963192608cc564b0a7d0f4aa847ee421bd77551 |
| Winner: FC Anyang | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/k-league-winner-fc-anyang-polymarket-0x6ea6c6ded53d710b8684bf5123986b76a879aa18973616a954772a4fb43422ac |
| Winner: Jeju SK | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/k-league-winner-jeju-sk-polymarket-0x9f7263e1705426f8f8fcfab2df55be535166eb118547300d16c26fda718ef824 |
| Winner: Incheon United | 47¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/k-league-winner-incheon-united-polymarket-0x50f574aba8e22be96416a486db50b15e14aa550f0a12dfda7e21956d0bfdc9eb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: Bucheon FC 1995 | Winner: Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors | Winner: Gwangju FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 48 | 48 | 48 |
| 2026-04-26 | 47 | 47 | 47 |
| 2026-05-03 | 50 | 49 | 49 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that Gwangju FC will win the 2026 K-League season, currently priced at 50 cents. The market shows extreme fragmentation across five leading contenders (Gwangju, FC Anyang, Gangwon, Incheon, and Pohang), each trading in a narrow 49-50 cent range, suggesting significant uncertainty about the season's outcome. Contract volume has been minimal over the past 24 hours, indicating limited recent trading activity and potentially incomplete price discovery. The probability could shift upward if Gwangju demonstrates strong performance in upcoming league fixtures, or downward if competing teams improve their standing or Gwangju faces injuries or tactical setbacks. Resolution depends on the final K-League standings when the season concludes later in 2026.

### Key factors

- Five contracts are priced within a single cent of each other (49-50¢), indicating the market perceives these teams as near-equally likely winners rather than establishing a clear favorite
- Zero trading volume across all top contracts in the past 24 hours suggests low market liquidity and potentially stale pricing that may not reflect recent team performance or roster changes
- Gwangju FC and FC Anyang are both priced at exactly 50¢, making them co-leaders rather than establishing a single market leader with conviction
- The K-League season runs through late November/early December 2026, meaning approximately seven months of matches remain to resolve the winner and shift probabilities
- Combined probability of the five leading contracts exceeds 247¢, indicating the market assigns non-trivial probability to other teams winning the title

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kleague
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kleague

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.