# Will Angie Craig be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 8 contracts — refreshed 56 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/klobseat
Updated: 2026-08-24T00:20:50.809Z
Category: politics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-01

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angie Craig | 43¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-angie-craig-be-united-states-senator-from-min-kalshi-kxklobseat-27feb01-acra |
| Amy Klobuchar | 5¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-amy-klobuchar-be-united-states-senator-from-m-kalshi-kxklobseat-27feb01-aklo |
| Erin Murphy | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-erin-murphy-be-united-states-senator-from-min-kalshi-kxklobseat-27feb01-emur |
| Keith Ellison | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-keith-ellison-be-united-states-senator-from-m-kalshi-kxklobseat-27feb01-kell |
| Kelly Morrison | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kelly-morrison-be-united-states-senator-from-kalshi-kxklobseat-27feb01-kmor |
| Melisa López Franzen | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-melisa-lpez-franzen-be-united-states-senator-kalshi-kxklobseat-27feb01-mfra |
| No one | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-no-one-be-united-states-senator-from-minnesot-kalshi-kxklobseat-27feb01-noone |
| Steve Simon | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-steve-simon-be-united-states-senator-from-min-kalshi-kxklobseat-27feb01-ssim |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | 43 |
| 2026-08-23 | 5 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-17 · Angie Craig +29pp 14→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · No one +6pp 10→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Angie Craig has a 6% chance of being Minnesota's Class I Senator on February 1, 2027. The 2024 Senate race features multiple viable candidates competing for this seat. Craig's current low probability suggests markets view her as a longshot compared to other Democratic candidates, particularly Kelly Morrison who trades at 3¢. The probability will primarily shift based on primary election dynamics, polling trends, and the November 2024 general election results. The main resolution event is the 2024 Senate election in November, which will determine who holds the seat in early 2027. Market pricing reflects both historical electoral patterns in Minnesota and current candidate viability assessments.

### Key factors

- Minnesota Class I Senate seat is currently held by Amy Klobuchar (D); the seat was up for election in 2024 with multiple Democratic primary candidates competing
- Kelly Morrison trades at significantly lower prices (3¢) than Craig (7¢), indicating market preference for Morrison as the Democratic nominee
- Craig's 6% probability is roughly equivalent to betting against her compared to other candidates or the 'no one' outcome at 9¢
- Primary election outcomes and subsequent polling against Republican opponent(s) in the general election will be the primary driver of probability movement
- Trading volume on Craig's contract ($137 in 24h) is notably lower than Morrison's ($591), suggesting less market interest or conviction in Craig-specific outcomes

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/klobseat
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=klobseat
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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