# Will AAK win the 2026 Kosovan parliamentary election

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kosovoparli
Updated: 2026-06-18T13:20:21.290Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-06-07

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $58

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LVV | 97¢ | ±0 | $58 | kalshi | /markets/will-lvv-win-the-2026-kosovan-parliamentary-electi-kalshi-kxkosovoparli-26jun07-lvv |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 38 |
| 2026-06-05 | 89 |
| 2026-06-11 | 98 |
| 2026-06-17 | 99 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market participants' assessment that the Democratic Party of Kosovo (LVV) is heavily favored to win the most seats in Kosovo's 2026 parliamentary election, with AAK estimated at just 22% chance. The LVV contract trading at 69¢ dominates the market, suggesting consensus that they remain the frontrunner despite recent political dynamics. AAK's relatively low probability likely reflects both LVV's polling strength and fragmentation among opposition parties. The market will clarify significantly once official results are announced following Kosovo's parliamentary election, expected in June 2026. Changes would depend on pre-election polling trends, coalition dynamics, voter turnout patterns, and any major political events affecting party positioning in the weeks leading to the vote.

### Key factors

- LVV currently priced at 69¢ implies market expects them to win a plurality, reducing AAK's path to victory
- AAK's 22% probability reflects third-place positioning among tracked parties; PDK and LDK combined trade at only 11¢, suggesting fragmented opposition
- Kosovo parliamentary elections occur with proportional representation, meaning AAK would need substantial vote share to win most seats rather than just plurality rules
- Trading volume on AAK contract ($12 24h) is lowest among tracked parties, indicating limited market confidence and potentially less refined pricing
- Election date in June 2026 represents near-term resolution; current probabilities may shift significantly based on final pre-election polling in May-June

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kosovoparli
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kosovoparli
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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