# Will Arianit Koci be the next President of Kosovo before Jan 1, 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 1 contract — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kosovopres
Updated: 2026-09-25T10:20:49.956Z
Category: politics
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-08

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bekim Sejdiu | 8¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bekim-sejdiu-be-the-next-president-of-kosovo-kalshi-kxkosovopres-27jan01-bsej |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | 34 |
| 2026-09-18 | 33 |
| 2026-09-25 | 31 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-24 · Bekim Sejdiu −11pp 36→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-25 · Bekim Sejdiu +6pp 25→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Bekim Sejdiu +4pp 33→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Bekim Sejdiu +3pp 30→33¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Arianit Koci will become Kosovo's next president by January 1, 2027—less than four months away. The 5% assessment suggests low confidence in his near-term succession, likely reflecting that Kosovo's presidential election process follows a parliamentary vote by the legislature rather than direct popular election, and such transitions typically require significant political coalition shifts or unexpected vacancies. The timing constraint is narrow; Koci would need to secure sufficient parliamentary support within an unusually compressed timeframe. Key drivers include parliamentary seat distribution, existing political alliances, and whether constitutional procedures for presidential succession are triggered. The resolution depends on legislative voting outcomes or formal declarations of presidential incapacity or vacancy before year-end.

### Key factors

- Kosovo's president is elected by parliamentary vote, not direct election; Koci would need majority support from current legislators within 4 months
- Current president Hashim Thaçi's tenure status and whether a formal vacancy or succession vote is scheduled before January 1, 2027
- Arianit Koci's current political party affiliation and whether his party holds sufficient seats or coalition leverage in parliament
- Comparison pricing shows Feride Rushiti and Koci similarly priced (7¢) while others are lower (5¢), indicating fragmented market views on succession candidates
- Trading volume across all presidential succession contracts is zero in the 24-hour period, suggesting minimal market activity and potential illiquidity

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kosovopres
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kosovopres

## License

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