# Will Kraken IPO by end of 2026?

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kraken-ipo
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:42:22.792Z
Category: markets
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 34% / Polymarket 31% — 3pp spread
- 24h volume: $1.8M

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 31¢ | −2pp | $541K | polymarket | /markets/kraken-ipo-by-december-31-2026-polymarket-0xced0cb8725bad43d78fda0cd0e5fa9e31804625cb3502b2c7897f8e8f7fa9e1f |
| Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jan 1, 2027? | 36¢ | — | $461K | kalshi | /markets/will-a-crypto-market-structure-bill-becomes-law-be-kalshi-kxcryptostructure-26jan-27 |
| Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Aug 1, 2026? | 12¢ | — | $322K | kalshi | /markets/will-a-crypto-market-structure-bill-becomes-law-be-kalshi-kxcryptostructure-26jan-aug |
| Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jul 1, 2026? | 1¢ | — | $299K | kalshi | /markets/will-a-crypto-market-structure-bill-becomes-law-be-kalshi-kxcryptostructure-26jan-jul |
| Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine? | 47¢ | ±0 | $49K | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-the-2026-senate-elections-in-ge-kalshi-kxdemcorefoursenatesweep-26nov03 |
| Will Citigroup take Kraken public before Jan 1, 2027? | 44¢ | −2pp | $31K | kalshi | /markets/will-citigroup-take-kraken-public-before-jan-1-202-kalshi-kxkrakenbankpublic-27jan01-citi |
| Will Goldman Sachs take Kraken public before Jan 1, 2027? | 29¢ | −1pp | $26K | kalshi | /markets/will-goldman-sachs-take-kraken-public-before-jan-1-kalshi-kxkrakenbankpublic-27jan01-gs |
| Will Morgan Stanley take Kraken public before Jan 1, 2027? | 46¢ | −2pp | $19K | kalshi | /markets/will-morgan-stanley-take-kraken-public-before-jan-kalshi-kxkrakenbankpublic-27jan01-ms |
| Will JPMorgan Chase take Kraken public before Jan 1, 2027? | 41¢ | −1pp | $15K | kalshi | /markets/will-jpmorgan-chase-take-kraken-public-before-jan-kalshi-kxkrakenbankpublic-27jan01-jpm |
| Will Bank of America take Kraken public before Jan 1, 2027? | 44¢ | −13pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-america-take-kraken-public-before-jan-kalshi-kxkrakenbankpublic-27jan01-boa |
| Will Goldman Sachs serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO? | 74¢ | −2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-goldman-sachs-serve-as-lead-left-underwriter-kalshi-kxopenaileadleft-28jan01b-gsx |
| Will Morgan Stanley serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO? | 63¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-morgan-stanley-serve-as-lead-left-underwriter-kalshi-kxanthropicleadleft-28jan01b-msx |
| Will Goldman Sachs serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO? | 35¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-goldman-sachs-serve-as-lead-left-underwriter-kalshi-kxanthropicleadleft-28jan01b-gsx |
| Will Morgan Stanley serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO? | 25¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-morgan-stanley-serve-as-lead-left-underwriter-kalshi-kxopenaileadleft-28jan01b-msx |
| Will Bank of America serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO? | 4¢ | −1pp | $167 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-america-serve-as-lead-left-underwrite-kalshi-kxanthropicleadleft-28jan01b-boax |
| Will JPMorgan Chase serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO? | 6¢ | −1pp | $133 | kalshi | /markets/will-jpmorgan-chase-serve-as-lead-left-underwriter-kalshi-kxanthropicleadleft-28jan01b-jpmx |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 40 |
| 2026-06-12 | 41 |
| 2026-06-19 | 44 |
| 2026-06-26 | 47 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Will Bank of America take Kraken public before Jan 1, 2027? −13pp 35→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine? +5pp 43→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Will Goldman Sachs serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO? −4pp 32→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Will Goldman Sachs serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO? −4pp 77→73¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine? +3pp 37→40¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kraken-ipo
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kraken-ipo

## License

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