# Will Aleksandra Owca win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 3 contracts — refreshed 29 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/krakowmayor
Updated: 2026-09-24T03:20:51.290Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-27

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Łukasz Gibała | 82¢ | +3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-ukasz-gibaa-win-the-2026-special-election-for-kalshi-kxkrakowmayor-26sep27-lgib |
| Monika Piątkowska | 11¢ | +1pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-monika-pitkowska-win-the-2026-special-electio-kalshi-kxkrakowmayor-26sep27-mpia |
| Michał Drewnicki | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-micha-drewnicki-win-the-2026-special-election-kalshi-kxkrakowmayor-26sep27-mdre |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | 44 |
| 2026-09-10 | 43 |
| 2026-09-17 | 43 |
| 2026-09-19 | 42 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Monika Piątkowska −7pp 21→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Łukasz Gibała −6pp 70→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Monika Piątkowska +5pp 16→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Łukasz Gibała +3pp 66→69¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment of Aleksandra Owca's chances of winning Kraków's 2026 special mayoral election. At 21%, Owca is currently positioned as the third-most-likely candidate behind frontrunner Łukasz Gibała (56%) and Monika Piątkowska (20%). Her relatively low probability reflects limited market volume on her specific contract—only $0 in 24-hour trading activity—which suggests either low trader interest or strong consensus that other candidates are more viable. The main factors influencing this level are the perceived strength of competing candidates, particularly Gibała's substantial lead, and Owca's current public profile and electoral support within Kraków. The election date itself will serve as the critical catalyst, resolving all remaining uncertainty about which candidate ultimately prevails and determining whether Owca gains ground from current expectations.

### Key factors

- Łukasz Gibała holds a 56% market probability, indicating dominant position and likely splitting anti-incumbent or reform-minded votes among the other three candidates
- Market volume on Owca's contract is zero in the last 24 hours, suggesting either low trader conviction or possible information gaps about her candidacy
- Owca's 21% probability falls between Piątkowska (20%) and Gibała (56%), positioning her as a secondary alternative in the three-candidate race
- No recent polling or campaign activity data is reflected in the contract prices, creating potential for significant repricing if new campaign developments emerge
- The election date and official candidate registration deadlines will be the primary events that either confirm or challenge current market expectations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/krakowmayor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=krakowmayor
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.