# Will Sarah Preu be the Democratic nominee for KS-03

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 52% across 10 contracts — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ksprimary
Updated: 2026-06-27T02:20:50.097Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 52% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Schmidt | 89¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-derek-schmidt-be-the-republican-nominee-for-k-kalshi-kxksprimary-02r26-dsch |
| Colin McRoberts | 48¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-colin-mcroberts-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxksprimary-01d26-cmcr |
| Lauren Reinhold | 44¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lauren-reinhold-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxksprimary-01d26-lrei |
| Don Coover | 62¢ | +61pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-don-coover-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ks-0-kalshi-kxksprimary-02d26-dcoo |
| Chad Young | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chad-young-be-the-republican-nominee-for-ks-0-kalshi-kxksprimary-02r26-cyou |
| Chase LaPorte | 14¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chase-laporte-be-the-republican-nominee-for-k-kalshi-kxksprimary-03r26-clap |
| Eric Jenkins | 75¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-eric-jenkins-be-the-republican-nominee-for-ks-kalshi-kxksprimary-03r26-ejen |
| Chris Carmichael | 56¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-carmichael-be-the-democratic-nominee-fo-kalshi-kxksprimary-04d26-ccar |
| Katy Tyndell | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-katy-tyndell-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ks-kalshi-kxksprimary-04d26-ktyn |
| Ron Estes | 96¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ron-estes-be-the-republican-nominee-for-ks-04-kalshi-kxksprimary-04r26-rest |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | 67 |
| 2026-06-20 | 79 |
| 2026-06-22 | 46 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Don Coover +61pp 1→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Katy Tyndell +10pp 26→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Chris Carmichael −9pp 68→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Chris Carmichael −3pp 59→56¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Sarah Preu is currently assessed at 46% odds to become the Democratic nominee for Kansas's 3rd congressional district. This probability reflects significant uncertainty about the Democratic primary outcome in a competitive race. The current level suggests meaningful backing for Preu but also indicates substantial competition or concerns about her nomination prospects. Primary dynamics typically shift based on candidate fundraising, endorsements, polling data, and field composition changes. The nomination will be resolved on or shortly after the August 2026 primary election date, when Kansas voters cast ballots and determine the Democratic nominee for this House race. Until then, factors including campaign momentum, debate performance, voter outreach effectiveness, and potential candidate entry or withdrawal could materially move this probability.

### Key factors

- Sharice Davids, a Democrat incumbent, is priced at 92¢ suggesting she is the presumptive Democratic favorite for KS-03, which directly constrains Preu's probability
- The low trading volume ($140 24h) and thin market depth indicate limited liquidity and potentially wide confidence intervals around the 46% assessment
- Kansas primary rules, early filing deadlines, and the timing of candidate announcements will determine the final field composition competing for the nomination
- Democratic primary voter preferences in KS-03, measurable through polling and early organizing data, will drive the eventual outcome
- The August 2026 primary election date represents the resolution point when nominee selection becomes deterministic

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ksprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ksprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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