# Will Jack Harlow be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 4% across 20 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kxroleateventgovball
Updated: 2026-05-03T21:51:01.844Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 4% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Swift | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-be-a-headliner-at-governors-ball-kalshi-kxkxroleateventgovball-26dec31-tay |
| Drake | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-be-a-headliner-at-governors-ball-music-kalshi-kxkxroleateventgovball-26dec31-dra |
| Bad Bunny | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bad-bunny-be-a-headliner-at-governors-ball-mu-kalshi-kxkxroleateventgovball-26dec31-bad |
| Kendrick Lamar | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kendrick-lamar-be-a-headliner-at-governors-ba-kalshi-kxkxroleateventgovball-26dec31-ken |
| Travis Scott | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-travis-scott-be-a-headliner-at-governors-ball-kalshi-kxkxroleateventgovball-26dec31-tra |
| SZA | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sza-be-a-headliner-at-governors-ball-music-fe-kalshi-kxkxroleateventgovball-26dec31-sza |
| Post Malone | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-post-malone-be-a-headliner-at-governors-ball-kalshi-kxkxroleateventgovball-26dec31-pos |
| Billie Eilish | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-billie-eilish-be-a-headliner-at-governors-bal-kalshi-kxkxroleateventgovball-26dec31-bil |
| Olivia Rodrigo | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-olivia-rodrigo-be-a-headliner-at-governors-ba-kalshi-kxkxroleateventgovball-26dec31-oli |
| The Weeknd | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-weeknd-be-a-headliner-at-governors-ball-m-kalshi-kxkxroleateventgovball-26dec31-wee |
| Dua Lipa | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dua-lipa-be-a-headliner-at-governors-ball-mus-kalshi-kxkxroleateventgovball-26dec31-dua |
| Playboi Carti | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-playboi-carti-be-a-headliner-at-governors-bal-kalshi-kxkxroleateventgovball-26dec31-pla |
| Tyler, The Creator | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tyler-the-creator-be-a-headliner-at-governors-kalshi-kxkxroleateventgovball-26dec31-tyl |
| Miley Cyrus | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miley-cyrus-be-a-headliner-at-governors-ball-kalshi-kxkxroleateventgovball-26dec31-mil |
| Doja Cat | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-doja-cat-be-a-headliner-at-governors-ball-mus-kalshi-kxkxroleateventgovball-26dec31-doj |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sabrina-carpenter-be-a-headliner-at-governors-kalshi-kxkxroleateventgovball-26dec31-sab |
| Megan Thee Stallion | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-megan-thee-stallion-be-a-headliner-at-governo-kalshi-kxkxroleateventgovball-26dec31-meg |
| Ice Spice | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ice-spice-be-a-headliner-at-governors-ball-mu-kalshi-kxkxroleateventgovball-26dec31-ice |
| Karol G | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-karol-g-be-a-headliner-at-governors-ball-musi-kalshi-kxkxroleateventgovball-26dec31-kar |
| Morgan Wallen | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-morgan-wallen-be-a-headliner-at-governors-bal-kalshi-kxkxroleateventgovball-26dec31-mor |

## Analysis

This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that Jack Harlow will be announced as a headliner for Governors Ball Music Festival 2026, currently set at 8%. The low probability suggests market participants view him as an unlikely choice for the festival's top billing, despite his commercial success in recent years. Key considerations include his chart performance and touring history relative to typical Governors Ball headliners, festival booking patterns from previous years, and competing artist probabilities. The festival's lineup announcement—typically occurring in early spring—represents the primary catalyst that will resolve this market. Market data shows very low conviction across most artist contracts, with only A$AP Rocky trading significantly higher at 94 cents, suggesting genuine uncertainty about the entire 2026 lineup rather than strong conviction against Harlow specifically.

### Key factors

- Jack Harlow has not headlined major multi-day festivals comparable to Governors Ball, limiting precedent for such a booking
- Governors Ball typically features established artists with sustained mainstream presence; Harlow's chart momentum peaked in 2022-2023
- The 94-cent probability on A$AP Rocky versus 8 cents on Harlow suggests substantial competitive pressure from other artists in the consideration set
- Lineup announcements typically occur in April-May; any official announcement would immediately resolve uncertainty
- Recent tour attendance and streaming data would directly impact his competitiveness for premium festival slots

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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