# KY-04 House Election Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ky04-house-election-winner
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Republican Party at 90%
- Runner-up: Democratic Party at 11%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican Party | 90¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ky-04-house-election-winner-republican-party-polymarket-0xf679b236f9ff53d3a850f76ebc948d4b89c829aaf66ce4434dd14302377ee3ba |
| Democratic Party | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ky-04-house-election-winner-democratic-party-polymarket-0xee7822fd9a558dbba01cd2a98760a5a8b649483d40f5f92d78a64fd1c21a2aff |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Republican Party | Democratic Party |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 93 | 7 |
| 2026-05-21 | 92 | 9 |
| 2026-05-23 | 91 | 10 |
| 2026-06-04 | — | 10 |
| 2026-06-10 | — | 11 |
| 2026-06-11 | 90 | — |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The leading candidate in Kentucky's 4th congressional district is priced at a 91% probability of winning, indicating strong market confidence in their victory. This level reflects expectations about candidate viability, recent polling trends, and historical voting patterns in the district. The probability could move lower if new polling shows a competitive race, higher-than-expected opponent fundraising, or significant shifts in district sentiment. The main catalyst remains Election Day in November 2026, when actual voter preference will resolve the outcome. Market participants are weighing incumbent strength, demographic composition of the district, and typical partisan lean when pricing this contract.

### Key factors

- Kentucky's 4th district voting history and partisan lean compared to statewide/national trends
- Candidate quality, fundraising, and campaign organization as of mid-2026
- Current public polling data from the district, if available, versus implied probability
- Turnout expectations for a midterm election year and demographic shifts
- Potential for unexpected events (candidate withdrawals, scandals, or significant endorsements) between now and November 2026 election

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ky04-house-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ky04-house-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.