# Will Adam Perez Arquette be the Republican nominee for KY-06

> Closed. Final outcome: Maria Rodriguez. Last odds frozen 68 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kyprimary
Updated: 2026-05-21T01:20:48.891Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: resolved
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 91% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K
- Resolved: Maria Rodriguez

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Dembo | 86¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-zach-dembo-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ky-0-kalshi-kxkyprimary-06d26-zdem |
| Maria Rodriguez | 96¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-maria-rodriguez-be-the-republican-nominee-for-kalshi-kxkyprimary-03r26-mrod |

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that Adam Perez Arquette will secure the Republican Party's nomination for Kentucky's 6th congressional district. The 61% probability reflects moderate confidence, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about whether he faces significant primary opposition or encounters organizational obstacles. Key factors driving this level include the strength of alternative candidates in the district, fundraising capacity, endorsement patterns from Kentucky Republican leadership, and recent polling data from district-level surveys. The primary election itself will be the definitive catalyst resolving this uncertainty. Until that vote occurs, market participants are pricing in a scenario where Arquette has a meaningful but not overwhelming advantage, implying the nomination remains genuinely competitive.

### Key factors

- Recent polling data from KY-06 Republican primary showing Arquette's standing relative to named opponents and undecided voters
- Total fundraising and cash-on-hand figures for Arquette versus primary challengers in the most recent FEC filing periods
- Endorsement patterns from Kentucky Republican Party officials, state legislators, and national party figures
- Candidate field composition—whether other viable Republican candidates have formally entered or are actively campaigning
- Early voting or preference data from local party surveys or internal campaign polls that became public

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kyprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kyprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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