# Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kyto-sanga-fc-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:35:43.886Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka | 32¢ | −24pp | $294 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-avispa-fukuoka-polymarket-0x805f95840ab0ed43172a3f2195f2cac152f0d6e12d3fe7028ca4dd91db5d893c |
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | +12pp | $283 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x164f65bdba63b31b0fe7b75fed96ea69c9a6aba1d5daf015c3c6e417b85e9ef8 |
| Both Teams to Score | 58¢ | +2pp | $157 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-both-tea-polymarket-0x6cfc8d4ea986763ba0a10eacb817822ac38af23c8d9d5c31d3a98358ab1f7b8f |
| O/U 1.5 | 70¢ | −1pp | $153 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xd4cc9afee05ce80f6b23cc017e3d9f86a7a62eb866e03d7484431a9a55c38cd8 |
| O/U 2.5 | 42¢ | −9pp | $141 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0xd9e96a64db32554c4a5a6b4f41279fa3b90ac2b57d0c50103860e12e40733268 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | +3pp | $90 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-both-polymarket-0x35fac179b3dbc0289e4000749ccf236afea6d0500b4671939c331fc0b221c35e |
| Nagoya Grampus | 40¢ | +23pp | $78 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-nagoya-grampus-polymarket-0x25132a85784c8a4d7e9033d1b409b60703b4985d5404a86669c3e9b22c0dc79e |
| O/U 3.5 | 21¢ | −9pp | $41 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0xf1423f63f1a0ad179af8e4828f4df3595480e6b6ae4cf0dd26cdf4cd74041619 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | −13pp | $38 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0xe57d5ef3322ea2c9e06b55f96c797d127a6f99dff16c551f4067262033acf288 |
| Nagoya Grampus (-1.5) | 19¢ | +4pp | $20 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-nagoya-g-polymarket-0x0524ea5d7f1c73584bdce3de66b22fb30eacd6a1ef0bc3b034e5e9e3d3be9f8d |
| O/U 3.5 | 30¢ | −4pp | $20 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0xec59e7436c79b9327cf1b9416da41ee55e799520f89361d59944360a652c8852 |
| Avispa Fukuoka (-2.5) | 4¢ | −27pp | $16 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-avisp-polymarket-0xf35f621ce574603ed9be29ced4c295540e0fbdffa6f70e74c326153ace076fe2 |
| O/U 1.5 | 78¢ | +25pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xc12420d54a5f52a0e3e6b567c04c4a504cb40f1dfc473234c15c5c8db9fda052 |
| Avispa Fukuoka (-1.5) | 12¢ | −32pp | $6 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-avisp-polymarket-0x33b10096dcf1eb8d78112d780a46d471b7af00b0ca9944e6c30712f4fccb116d |
| Gamba Ōsaka (-2.5) | 5¢ | −25pp | $2 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-gamba-sa-polymarket-0xa4181124cdfbaaec195dd2665c734963f1e390267c4c321eb161640f93743aa9 |
| Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5) | 6¢ | −27pp | $2 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-kyto-polymarket-0xce29520e287e87ae78f2af8b3d8b68c8165203f33c82d9dcc3379088b4204178 |
| Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5) | 17¢ | −12pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-kyto-polymarket-0xad3d5f61260454134827e38aed2f55c4b6ab297f062f27d0cbf63baa70c71797 |
| Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5) | 14¢ | −24pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-gamba-sa-polymarket-0x97c68a154393c087eef54aa2afd6a2705e4ec25a08f8c01ad141b53ca8510456 |
| Nagoya Grampus (-2.5) | 7¢ | −16pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-nagoya-g-polymarket-0x0a811879a31f5a3a43f79b658cfc5b4c22d780bef0efae98d73e39c0f4b1d88b |
| O/U 4.5 | 9¢ | −27pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x8ab58d7d68d2735114ad04e269a9af95e139735de128beb2c765d39dd0489774 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 43 |
| 2026-05-02 | 41 |
| 2026-05-03 | 41 |
| 2026-05-06 | 32 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Avispa Fukuoka (-1.5) −32pp 38→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Avispa Fukuoka (-2.5) −27pp 32→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5) −27pp 37→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 4.5 −27pp 34→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 1.5 +25pp 61→86¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 29% probability reflects aggregate trader expectations that Kyōto Sanga FC will achieve a specific outcome against Gamba Ōsaka in an upcoming match. The probability sits near the lower end, suggesting traders view the outcome as more likely to go the other way. Current standings, recent form, head-to-head records, and injury reports for both squads are primary drivers of where this estimate lands. The resolution of uncertainty depends on the actual match result, which will be determined when these teams play. Recent performance trends and any lineup changes announced before kickoff would likely shift the probability either direction.

### Key factors

- Recent league positions and points totals for both Kyōto Sanga and Gamba Ōsaka as of late 2026
- Head-to-head historical record and results from the most recent meetings between these teams
- Current injury status or suspensions affecting key players on either squad
- Kyōto Sanga's win-loss-draw record over their last 5-10 J-League matches
- Home-field advantage status and venue-specific performance patterns if applicable

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kyto-sanga-fc-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kyto-sanga-fc-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.