# Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Gamba Ōsaka

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 28% across 20 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kyto-sanga-fc-vs-gamba-saka
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:05:50.327Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 28% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $16

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 2.5 | 41¢ | — | $11 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0xd9e96a64db32554c4a5a6b4f41279fa3b90ac2b57d0c50103860e12e40733268 |
| Nagoya Grampus | 38¢ | +1pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-nagoya-grampus-polymarket-0x25132a85784c8a4d7e9033d1b409b60703b4985d5404a86669c3e9b22c0dc79e |
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x164f65bdba63b31b0fe7b75fed96ea69c9a6aba1d5daf015c3c6e417b85e9ef8 |
| O/U 3.5 | 29¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0xec59e7436c79b9327cf1b9416da41ee55e799520f89361d59944360a652c8852 |
| Nagoya Grampus (-1.5) | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-nagoya-g-polymarket-0x0524ea5d7f1c73584bdce3de66b22fb30eacd6a1ef0bc3b034e5e9e3d3be9f8d |
| Draw (Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC) | 30¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-draw-avispa-fukuok-polymarket-0xdf82b18e1af51be650c130d61a97a0967f0095aa7737b396db70d426bd6d7194 |
| Kyōto Sanga FC | 40¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-kyto-sanga-fc-polymarket-0xe6b9d547786ade247dba78e12c650c766fd6347c665d671ee8625c7ee0882783 |
| Gamba Ōsaka (-2.5) | 12¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-gamba-sa-polymarket-0xa4181124cdfbaaec195dd2665c734963f1e390267c4c321eb161640f93743aa9 |
| Gamba Ōsaka | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-gamba-saka-polymarket-0xec591d9284ef5e118e9c4634b6e9cd620d6cfec91d15338300ca924b6f110446 |
| Avispa Fukuoka (-2.5) | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-avisp-polymarket-0xf35f621ce574603ed9be29ced4c295540e0fbdffa6f70e74c326153ace076fe2 |
| Avispa Fukuoka (-1.5) | 14¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-avisp-polymarket-0x33b10096dcf1eb8d78112d780a46d471b7af00b0ca9944e6c30712f4fccb116d |
| Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5) | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-kyto-polymarket-0xad3d5f61260454134827e38aed2f55c4b6ab297f062f27d0cbf63baa70c71797 |
| Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5) | 12¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-kyto-polymarket-0xce29520e287e87ae78f2af8b3d8b68c8165203f33c82d9dcc3379088b4204178 |
| O/U 1.5 | 68¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xd4cc9afee05ce80f6b23cc017e3d9f86a7a62eb866e03d7484431a9a55c38cd8 |
| O/U 3.5 | 20¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0xf1423f63f1a0ad179af8e4828f4df3595480e6b6ae4cf0dd26cdf4cd74041619 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x8ab58d7d68d2735114ad04e269a9af95e139735de128beb2c765d39dd0489774 |
| Nagoya Grampus (-2.5) | 13¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-nagoya-g-polymarket-0x0a811879a31f5a3a43f79b658cfc5b4c22d780bef0efae98d73e39c0f4b1d88b |
| Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-both-polymarket-0x35fac179b3dbc0289e4000749ccf236afea6d0500b4671939c331fc0b221c35e |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 31¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-avispa-fukuoka-polymarket-0x805f95840ab0ed43172a3f2195f2cac152f0d6e12d3fe7028ca4dd91db5d893c |
| Draw (Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka) | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-draw-nagoya-grampus-v-polymarket-0xde13b831cf6d625d075855437b09acca2677cae557c1f8118fdef77786dab1c5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 38 |
| 2026-05-03 | 39 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · O/U 1.5 +7pp 62→69¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Nagoya Grampus (-2.5) +3pp 34→37¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/kyto-sanga-fc-vs-gamba-saka
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=kyto-sanga-fc-vs-gamba-saka

## License

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