# La Liga - Top 4 Finish

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 20 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/la-liga-top-4-finish
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.375Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-30

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 27% / Polymarket 38% — 11pp spread
- 24h volume: $365

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart | 51¢ | −10pp | $221 | polymarket | /markets/bundesliga-top-4-finish-stuttgart-polymarket-0x8ff61811cb593a37da148a8697e00af320c929bdfddce930e58cca21e8d8f721 |
| Leverkusen | 44¢ | −1pp | $76 | kalshi | /markets/will-leverkusen-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-2025-26-kalshi-kxbundesligatop4-26-lev |
| Hoffenheim | 26¢ | −4pp | $27 | kalshi | /markets/will-hoffenheim-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-2025-26-kalshi-kxbundesligatop4-26-tsg |
| RB Leipzig | 95¢ | +13pp | $23 | polymarket | /markets/bundesliga-top-4-finish-rb-leipzig-polymarket-0xa67e73c06e80891594aed95b81b59212881db3b44377740f98a6cbc4d898adb6 |
| Hoffenheim | 32¢ | +8pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/bundesliga-top-4-finish-hoffenheim-polymarket-0x1bde71ad84a6ff83821156582e2367d4eab7b3d8e22f21cb65c61f2aaced93d5 |
| Stuttgart | 25¢ | +1pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-stuttgart-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-2025-26-kalshi-kxbundesligatop4-26-vfb |
| Freiburg | 34¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-freiburg-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-2025-26-b-kalshi-kxbundesligatop4-26-scf |
| Betis | 24¢ | −13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-betis-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-2025-26-la-l-kalshi-kxlaligatop4-26-rbb |
| Dortmund | 96¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dortmund-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-2025-26-b-kalshi-kxbundesligatop4-26-bvb |
| Getafe | 22¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-getafe-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-2025-26-la-kalshi-kxlaligatop4-26-get |
| Alaves | 25¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaves-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-2025-26-la-kalshi-kxlaligatop4-26-ala |
| Rayo Vallecano | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rayo-vallecano-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-202-kalshi-kxlaligatop4-26-rvc |
| Bremen | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bremen-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-2025-26-bun-kalshi-kxbundesligatop4-26-svw |
| Frankfurt | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-frankfurt-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-2025-26-kalshi-kxbundesligatop4-26-sge |
| Betis | 4¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/laliga-top-4-finish-betis-polymarket-0xccb49e0802c9ada89016c5f6f9933847455b736228812d0707a88e014804a630 |
| Leverkusen | 10¢ | −13pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/bundesliga-top-4-finish-leverkusen-polymarket-0xf0b9e05dab54864fc496d3cb28a9694f125c21ac6a4d44a97cf02058310523b0 |
| Espanyol | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-espanyol-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-2025-26-l-kalshi-kxlaligatop4-26-esp |
| St. Pauli | 14¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-st-pauli-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-2025-26-b-kalshi-kxbundesligatop4-26-stp |
| Athletic Bilbao | 51¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-athletic-bilbao-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-20-kalshi-kxlaligatop4-26-ath |
| Girona | 20¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-girona-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-2025-26-la-kalshi-kxlaligatop4-26-gir |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 36 |
| 2026-04-25 | 26 |
| 2026-05-02 | 37 |
| 2026-05-08 | 7 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Stuttgart −21pp 25→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Leverkusen +15pp 5→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Hoffenheim −11pp 24→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Hoffenheim −4pp 16→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Dortmund −4pp 99→95¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 4% probability reflects Stuttgart's low likelihood of finishing in La Liga's top 4 during the 2025-26 season. Stuttgart is a Bundesliga club, not a La Liga team, which explains the minimal market interest and extremely low valuation. For context, La Liga's top 4 is typically contested by established Spanish clubs like Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atlético Madrid, and Sevilla. The contract appears to be mislabeled or reflects confusion about league classification. Market resolution depends on clarification of whether Stuttgart's Bundesliga top-4 finish (priced significantly higher at 51%) was mistakenly listed, or if there's a separate Spanish La Liga prediction being tracked.

### Key factors

- Stuttgart competes in Germany's Bundesliga, not Spain's La Liga, making a La Liga top-4 finish mechanically impossible
- Related Polymarket contract shows Stuttgart at 51% for Bundesliga top-4 finish, suggesting market data may be conflated or mislabeled
- Trading volume is extremely low ($221-408 daily on this contract), indicating minimal market liquidity or confidence in the listing
- The 2025-26 La Liga season runs through May 2026, with only weeks remaining until competition concludes
- Clarification of contract specifications would be required to understand whether this represents actual market expectations or a data classification error

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/la-liga-top-4-finish
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=la-liga-top-4-finish

## License

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