# La Liga - Which Clubs Get Relegated

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 35% across 9 contracts — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/la-liga-which-clubs-get-relegated
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:26.393Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-30

## Headline

- Probability: 35% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Sevilla | 19¢ | −25pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/laliga-which-clubs-get-relegated-sevilla-polymarket-0x42ac3eb50ff077cdd7a7483795f2b9ff1eb5132ab07ae2d7b8dd06482a4ace3f |
| FC Heidenheim | 95¢ | — | $136 | polymarket | /markets/bundesliga-which-clubs-get-relegated-fc-heidenheim-polymarket-0x7b2e9c05a6b257ccd8cbdcd976b020bbbef0cd72cdc857e6951b45a05355604d |
| Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Mallorca | 14¢ | −25pp | $128 | polymarket | /markets/laliga-which-clubs-get-relegated-mallorca-polymarket-0x888113c876895557b698436f6ca0d640b661c1474d995c3448ae39b542b71362 |
| Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Valencia | 15¢ | +5pp | $100 | polymarket | /markets/laliga-which-clubs-get-relegated-valencia-polymarket-0xee0bbdc0819d856ba914eddfb13c0820aae36ac023209e5ac91789202426a6a9 |
| Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Alavés | 31¢ | +11pp | $90 | polymarket | /markets/laliga-which-clubs-get-relegated-alavs-polymarket-0xb6d6734aa01582fec53a872e6e38c3e783a5f4578f8d4bea739ccf4058e207ea |
| St. Pauli | 33¢ | −2pp | $46 | polymarket | /markets/bundesliga-which-clubs-get-relegated-st-pauli-polymarket-0xd1fccf29139e6be18e434fef88096472e89d134657b1e8e54423cf41b4d60856 |
| Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Oviedo | 94¢ | −3pp | $13 | polymarket | /markets/laliga-which-clubs-get-relegated-oviedo-polymarket-0xbaaafe7b793b5459fc3f27d6c490572ebaf32d3b370e9d785dbba3cd468bdf52 |
| Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Espanyol | 5¢ | +1pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/laliga-which-clubs-get-relegated-espanyol-polymarket-0xe1400824776a6b10e72b25d67722726eca2cee5d0e8057a0ab626c3db1814f50 |
| FC Koln | 9¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/bundesliga-which-clubs-get-relegated-fc-koln-polymarket-0x0e925ab355d912ed3010f386ee2b62e071823f8fd15660e4eeae92b11e2963f0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 32 |
| 2026-04-10 | 15 |
| 2026-04-12 | 19 |
| 2026-04-21 | 47 |
| 2026-04-22 | 31 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents the probability that specific La Liga clubs will be relegated by the end of the 2025-26 season. The current 29% aggregate probability reflects a significant disagreement between markets: Kalshi prices it at just 4%, while Polymarket averages 30%, suggesting uncertainty about which clubs face genuine relegation risk. La Liga's competitive landscape and each team's current position in the standings would push this probability higher if mid-table clubs enter a sustained slump, or lower if traditional top-flight sides stabilize. The key catalyst is the final weeks of the season (typically ending in May/June), when mathematical certainty about which clubs drop to the second division becomes clear. Interim factors include upcoming fixture difficulty, injury situations among relegation-zone teams, and any significant management changes that could affect performance trajectories.

### Key factors

- Current league standings show which clubs occupy the bottom three positions and their point differential from safety
- Historical relegation patterns in La Liga indicate whether the current at-risk clubs match typical relegation profiles
- The 26-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests traders disagree on fundamental relegation risk assessment
- Remaining fixtures and schedule difficulty for bottom-placed teams will materially affect their ability to accumulate points
- Recent form trends (wins, losses, draws) for clubs near the relegation zone indicate whether trajectories are improving or deteriorating

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=la-liga-which-clubs-get-relegated

## License

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