# Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles City Council District 1 election

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/la1
Updated: 2026-08-09T13:20:51.630Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 87% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eunisses Hernandez | 87¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-los-angeles-city-council-dis-kalshi-kxla1-26-eher |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 87 |
| 2026-07-24 | 89 |
| 2026-08-03 | 88 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The prediction market assigns an 88% probability that Eunisses Hernandez will win the 2026 Los Angeles City Council District 1 election, reflecting current expectations about the race outcome. This high probability typically reflects either strong incumbency advantage, significant polling leads, or limited viable challengers in the district. The level could shift based on candidate entry or withdrawal, major scandal, significant shifts in voter registration, or endorsement patterns from influential local figures. The election itself on November 3, 2026 will ultimately resolve this uncertainty, though primary results or candidate announcements beforehand could cause material probability adjustments.

### Key factors

- Incumbency status and previous election performance of Eunisses Hernandez in District 1
- Number, quality, and fundraising capacity of competing candidates who have officially entered the race
- Voter registration trends and demographic shifts in the district since the last election
- Major endorsements from elected officials, labor unions, or other institutional actors in Los Angeles politics
- Any significant controversies, voting record changes, or scandal involving the frontrunner or challengers

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/la1
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=la1
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.