# Labour leadership election scheduled by ...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 67% across 1 contract — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/labour-leadership-election-scheduled
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.710Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 67% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 67¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/labour-leadership-election-scheduled-by-june-30-polymarket-0x6bc2c22c0200475f44030c497e48617311d87c299d8c65d039897a912ebc05b2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 39 |
| 2026-05-14 | 59 |
| 2026-05-21 | 59 |
| 2026-05-28 | 65 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-21 · June 30 +8pp 51→59¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · June 30 +5pp 58→63¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · June 30 −4pp 59→55¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/labour-leadership-election-scheduled
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=labour-leadership-election-scheduled
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.