# Will El Divo win La Casa de los Famosos

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 9 contracts — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lacasadelosfamosos
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:50:29.362Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-07

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season 6?: Horacio | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-horacio-win-la-casa-de-los-famosos-season-6-h-kalshi-kxlacasadelosfamosos-26aug31-hor |
| Season 6?: Fabio | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-fabio-win-la-casa-de-los-famosos-season-6-fab-kalshi-kxlacasadelosfamosos-26aug31-fab |
| Season 6?: Yoridan | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yoridan-win-la-casa-de-los-famosos-season-6-y-kalshi-kxlacasadelosfamosos-26aug31-yor |
| Season 6?: Stefano | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-stefano-win-la-casa-de-los-famosos-season-6-s-kalshi-kxlacasadelosfamosos-26aug31-ste |
| Season 6?: El Divo | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-el-divo-win-la-casa-de-los-famosos-season-6-e-kalshi-kxlacasadelosfamosos-26aug31-eld |
| Season 6?: Luis | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-luis-win-la-casa-de-los-famosos-season-6-luis-kalshi-kxlacasadelosfamosos-26aug31-lui |
| Season 6?: Curvy | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-curvy-win-la-casa-de-los-famosos-season-6-cur-kalshi-kxlacasadelosfamosos-26aug31-cur |
| Season 6?: Celinee | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-celinee-win-la-casa-de-los-famosos-season-6-c-kalshi-kxlacasadelosfamosos-26aug31-cel |
| Season 6?: Kenny | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kenny-win-la-casa-de-los-famosos-season-6-ken-kalshi-kxlacasadelosfamosos-26aug31-ken |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | 6 |
| 2026-05-03 | 5 |
| 2026-05-06 | 6 |
| 2026-05-08 | 7 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

La Casa de los Famosos is a Spanish-language reality competition show, and El Divo refers to a contestant or predicted winner in an upcoming season. The 6% probability reflects relatively low odds compared to other potential contestants. This level suggests markets view El Divo as an underdog pick, with more established or popular reality TV personalities considered stronger contenders. The probability would shift based on contestant elimination patterns as the season progresses, viewer engagement metrics, social media momentum, and any public voting or competition results. The primary resolution event is the show's finale broadcast, where winner determination occurs. Until then, early eliminations or unexpected contestant popularity surges could substantially move odds. Markets pricing El Divo at 6% indicate either limited public backing or that prediction markets currently favor alternative contestants with larger fanbases or perceived advantages in the competition format.

### Key factors

- Contestant elimination schedule and timing relative to voting rounds or public elimination events
- Social media engagement metrics and audience sentiment tracking for El Divo compared to competing contestants
- Format-specific advantages such as competition challenges suited to El Divo's demonstrated skills or personality traits
- Prior seasons' historical data on which contestant archetypes or demographics achieve higher placement rates
- Scheduled date of the season finale and current phase of elimination within the competition timeline

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lacasadelosfamosos
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lacasadelosfamosos

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.