# Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 20 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lai-chingte-out-as-president-of-taiwan-december-31
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: politics · Topic: china
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $1

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? | 6¢ | ±0 | $1 | polymarket | /markets/lai-ching-te-out-as-president-of-taiwan-by-decembe-polymarket-0x68e47e45601b8e7fff925490f419191126c0f87cdf978717881fd2efa18cfb5b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | 8 |
| 2026-06-15 | 8 |
| 2026-06-16 | 7 |
| 2026-06-17 | 7 |
| 2026-06-18 | 7 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 9% chance that Lai Ching-te will no longer serve as Taiwan's President before year-end 2026—roughly six months from now. Such an outcome would require extraordinary circumstances, as presidential removal in Taiwan is constitutionally difficult and typically requires impeachment by the legislature followed by conviction. The low probability reflects the significant political barriers to such action. The main factors influencing this estimate are the composition of Taiwan's legislature, the health and political stability of President Lai, and the possibility of unforeseen constitutional crises. The most immediate catalyst would be any major health incident affecting the president or a dramatic political shift in the Legislative Yuan that might alter impeachment dynamics. Currently, Lai's Democratic Progressive Party holds a legislative plurality, making removal highly unlikely absent extraordinary events.

### Key factors

- Taiwan's Legislative Yuan would need to initiate impeachment and achieve the required supermajority to convict and remove a sitting president, a constitutionally demanding process
- No major health incidents, constitutional crises, or political scandals involving President Lai have been reported as of mid-2026
- The Democratic Progressive Party's legislative position affects the practical likelihood of any removal effort succeeding
- Taiwan's political system has never successfully removed a sitting president through impeachment since democratization in the 1990s
- The six-month timeframe to year-end 2026 limits the window for political developments that could trigger presidential succession

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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