# Will Lai Ching-te leave office before 2027-07-01T14:00:00.000Z

> Before July 1, 2027 leads at 26%, runner-up 24% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/laiout-lchi
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:43.870Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before July 1, 2027 at 26%
- Runner-up: Before January 1, 2028 at 24%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $27

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before July 1, 2027 | 26¢ | ±0 | $27 | kalshi | /markets/will-lai-ching-te-leave-office-before-2027-07-01t1-kalshi-kxlaiout-lchi-27jul01 |
| Before January 1, 2028 | 24¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lai-ching-te-leave-office-before-2028-01-01t1-kalshi-kxlaiout-lchi-28jan01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before July 1, 2027 | Before January 1, 2028 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | — | 16 |
| 2026-04-15 | 6 | 19 |
| 2026-04-23 | — | 18 |
| 2026-05-01 | 10 | 16 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 17 |
| 2026-05-06 | 24 | 20 |
| 2026-05-07 | 24 | 24 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Before July 1, 2027 +14pp 10→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Before January 1, 2028 +4pp 20→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Before January 1, 2028 +3pp 17→20¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 17% likelihood that Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te will leave office involuntarily before July 1, 2027. The relatively low probability reflects expectations that Lai will serve his full term absent major unforeseen events. Key drivers of this estimate include Taiwan's political stability, Lai's health and personal circumstances, and the absence of imminent constitutional threats. The probability could move significantly if health issues emerge, major political upheaval occurs, or cross-strait tensions escalate dramatically. The most concrete near-term indicators would be Lai's public health status, parliamentary developments, and any statements from major political opposition figures regarding potential impeachment or recall mechanisms. Resolution depends ultimately on whether Lai remains in office through the specified date.

### Key factors

- Lai Ching-te's current health status and any public medical disclosures or incidents between now and July 2027
- Taiwan's domestic political stability and any serious parliamentary or opposition movements toward impeachment or recall procedures
- Cross-strait military or diplomatic escalation that could create constitutional crises or emergency conditions
- The strength and unity of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party coalition in maintaining executive continuity
- Any major corruption scandals or personal crises that could force resignation or create institutional pressure for removal

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/laiout-lchi
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=laiout-lchi

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.