# LaLiga: 2nd Place Finish

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 1 contract — refreshed 3 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/laliga-2nd-place-finish
Updated: 2026-05-06T03:20:48.042Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd Place Finish: Villarreal | 5¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/laliga-2nd-place-finish-villarreal-polymarket-0x9a5ccde050b22b50e57a386e9349c8e5a9fdeea6f8f95f08e24110ca3f073592 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 41 |
| 2026-05-02 | 19 |
| 2026-05-07 | 0 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · 2nd Place Finish: Villarreal +19pp 0→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · 2nd Place Finish: Villarreal −13pp 19→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 2nd Place Finish: Villarreal −3pp 6→3¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · 2nd Place Finish: Villarreal −3pp 3→0¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 34% probability reflects the chances that a team finishes in second place in LaLiga during the 2026 season. The aggregated estimate sits slightly below typical mid-range forecasts, suggesting modest confidence in this outcome. The position depends heavily on three dynamics: the strength of the top-finishing team (which would compress second-place competition), the performance variance of clubs contending for the runner-up spot, and any mid-season roster changes affecting competitive balance. The 3 percentage-point gap between venues likely reflects differing assessments of these variables rather than data disagreement. Resolution occurs at the end of the 2026 LaLiga season when final standings are determined. Seasonal outcomes depend on injury patterns, transfer activity, managerial stability, and competitive shifts within Spain's top division over the coming months.

### Key factors

- The identity and consistency of the top-finishing team will determine how compressed the race for second place becomes
- Mid-season transfers or managerial changes at contending clubs could materially alter competitive trajectories
- Injury patterns to key players on potential second-place contenders will influence point accumulation across the season
- The gap between Kalshi and Polymarket probabilities (3pp) suggests some analytical disagreement on second-place team competitiveness
- Final resolution occurs when LaLiga publishes official 2026 season standings, with no provisional or appeal period affecting the outcome

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/laliga-2nd-place-finish
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=laliga-2nd-place-finish

## License

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