# LaLiga

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 46% across 10 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/laliga
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.017Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-05-23

## Headline

- Probability: 46% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 7% / Polymarket 50% — 43pp spread
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Sevilla | 19¢ | −25pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/laliga-which-clubs-get-relegated-sevilla-polymarket-0x42ac3eb50ff077cdd7a7483795f2b9ff1eb5132ab07ae2d7b8dd06482a4ace3f |
| Real Madrid | 7¢ | −1pp | $818 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-madrid-win-the-la-liga-real-madrid-kalshi-kxlaliga-26-rma |
| Top Goalscorer : Kylian Mbappe | 91¢ | +1pp | $415 | polymarket | /markets/laliga-top-goalscorer-kylian-mbappe-polymarket-0xa449cd8346b6deda561828355ae92b88bd47d989859d2d287ce7e42a42b556c7 |
| Team to qualify for UEFA Champions League: Real Betis | 95¢ | −11pp | $241 | polymarket | /markets/laliga-team-to-qualify-for-uefa-champions-league-r-polymarket-0x78ea3a8d32df87495050d8a534f3e5c75e3760e00deef70c842d1b0226f9548f |
| Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Mallorca | 14¢ | −25pp | $128 | polymarket | /markets/laliga-which-clubs-get-relegated-mallorca-polymarket-0x888113c876895557b698436f6ca0d640b661c1474d995c3448ae39b542b71362 |
| Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Valencia | 15¢ | +5pp | $100 | polymarket | /markets/laliga-which-clubs-get-relegated-valencia-polymarket-0xee0bbdc0819d856ba914eddfb13c0820aae36ac023209e5ac91789202426a6a9 |
| Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Alavés | 31¢ | +11pp | $90 | polymarket | /markets/laliga-which-clubs-get-relegated-alavs-polymarket-0xb6d6734aa01582fec53a872e6e38c3e783a5f4578f8d4bea739ccf4058e207ea |
| Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Oviedo | 94¢ | −3pp | $13 | polymarket | /markets/laliga-which-clubs-get-relegated-oviedo-polymarket-0xbaaafe7b793b5459fc3f27d6c490572ebaf32d3b370e9d785dbba3cd468bdf52 |
| Most Assists: Lamine Yamal | 84¢ | −9pp | $7 | polymarket | /markets/laliga-most-assists-lamine-yamal-polymarket-0x737a8cfa06fcb8aa400a5cb6b83c49ce960806efe6d99452a7886c35533e05b7 |
| Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Espanyol | 5¢ | +1pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/laliga-which-clubs-get-relegated-espanyol-polymarket-0xe1400824776a6b10e72b25d67722726eca2cee5d0e8057a0ab626c3db1814f50 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 36 |
| 2026-04-25 | 45 |
| 2026-05-02 | 53 |
| 2026-05-08 | 50 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Most Assists: Lamine Yamal +45pp 45→90¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Team to qualify for UEFA Champions League: Real Betis −40pp 79→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Most Assists: Lamine Yamal −12pp 90→78¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Team to qualify for UEFA Champions League: Real Betis −11pp 42→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Most Assists: Lamine Yamal −9pp 78→69¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 49% probability represents the market's assessment of a specific LaLiga outcome based on aggregated contract prices across 17 linked markets. The current leader trades just slightly ahead of the runner-up, indicating genuine uncertainty about the resolution. Movement in this probability would likely follow shifts in player performance data, team standings, or relevant regulatory announcements—with the most volatility expected around scheduled fixture dates and official LaLiga communications. The lack of a clear consensus reflects either balanced competing outcomes or incomplete information among market participants. Resolution depends on which specific LaLiga event the leading contract measures; the varied secondary contracts suggest multiple dimensions of the 2025-26 season are being priced simultaneously.

### Key factors

- Current leader holds only 1-percentage-point advantage over runner-up, indicating genuine competition between outcomes rather than dominant consensus
- Top-volume contracts span multiple LaLiga dimensions (relegation, goal-scoring races, Champions League qualification) rather than concentrating on a single outcome
- Mbappe top-goalscorer contract trades at 89¢ while another top-scorer option (Muriqi) trades at 12¢, suggesting concentrated confidence in one player but uncertainty across the field
- Polymarket volume ranges from $128 to $1301 in 24-hour trading, indicating inconsistent participant engagement across related outcomes
- Runner-up position at 48% means less than 2% swing in aggregate prices would reverse the current leader

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/laliga
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=laliga

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.