# Girona vs Real Betis

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 18 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/laliga1h
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:43.203Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-28

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $858

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Half Winner?: Barcelona | 46¢ | ±0 | $606 | kalshi | /markets/barcelona-vs-real-madrid-first-half-winner-barcelo-kalshi-kxlaliga1h-26may10barrma-bar |
| First Half Winner?: Real Madrid | 19¢ | −1pp | $252 | kalshi | /markets/barcelona-vs-real-madrid-first-half-winner-real-ma-kalshi-kxlaliga1h-26may10barrma-rma |
| First Half Winner?: Tie | 29¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/barcelona-vs-real-madrid-first-half-winner-tie-kalshi-kxlaliga1h-26may10barrma-tie |
| Valencia | 26¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-valencia-win-the-1st-half-valencia-kalshi-kxlaliga1h-26may14vcfrvc-vcf |
| Real Madrid | 53¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-madrid-win-the-1st-half-real-madrid-kalshi-kxlaliga1h-26may14rmaovi-rma |
| Oviedo | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-oviedo-win-the-1st-half-oviedo-kalshi-kxlaliga1h-26may14rmaovi-ovi |
| Tie | 22¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-the-1st-half-tie-kalshi-kxlaliga1h-26may14rmaovi-tie |
| Girona | 27¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-girona-win-the-1st-half-girona-kalshi-kxlaliga1h-26may14girrso-gir |
| Real Sociedad | 18¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-sociedad-win-the-1st-half-real-sociedad-kalshi-kxlaliga1h-26may14girrso-rso |
| Tie | 33¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-the-1st-half-tie-kalshi-kxlaliga1h-26may14girrso-tie |
| Vallecano | 17¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vallecano-win-the-1st-half-vallecano-kalshi-kxlaliga1h-26may14vcfrvc-rvc |
| Tie | 34¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-the-1st-half-tie-kalshi-kxlaliga1h-26may14vcfrvc-tie |
| Getafe | 26¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-getafe-win-the-1st-half-getafe-kalshi-kxlaliga1h-26may13getmal-get |
| Mallorca | 12¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mallorca-win-the-1st-half-mallorca-kalshi-kxlaliga1h-26may13getmal-mal |
| Tie | 42¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-the-1st-half-tie-kalshi-kxlaliga1h-26may13getmal-tie |
| Alaves | 18¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaves-win-the-1st-half-alaves-kalshi-kxlaliga1h-26may13alabar-ala |
| Barcelona | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-barcelona-win-the-1st-half-barcelona-kalshi-kxlaliga1h-26may13alabar-bar |
| Tie | 31¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-the-1st-half-tie-kalshi-kxlaliga1h-26may13alabar-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | 16 |
| 2026-05-06 | 30 |
| 2026-05-07 | 30 |
| 2026-05-08 | 23 |
| 2026-05-09 | 27 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · First Half Winner?: Barcelona +18pp 21→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · First Half Winner?: Tie +14pp 16→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Tie +14pp 19→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Tie +11pp 23→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · First Half Winner?: Real Madrid +9pp 11→20¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/laliga1h
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=laliga1h

## License

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