# Real Betis wins by over 1.5 goals

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 16% across 15 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/laligaspread
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.179Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-28

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis wins by over 2.5 goals | 6¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/real-betis-wins-by-over-25-goals-real-betis-wins-b-kalshi-kxlaligaspread-26may09rsorbb-rbb2 |
| Atletico wins by over 2.5 goals | 9¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/atletico-wins-by-over-25-goals-atletico-wins-by-ov-kalshi-kxlaligaspread-26may09atmrcc-atm2 |
| Oviedo wins by over 1.5 goals | 11¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/oviedo-wins-by-over-15-goals-oviedo-wins-by-over-1-kalshi-kxlaligaspread-26may10oviget-ovi1 |
| Barcelona wins by over 1.5 goals | 38¢ | +3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/barcelona-wins-by-over-15-goals-barcelona-wins-by-kalshi-kxlaligaspread-26may10barrma-bar1 |
| Barcelona wins by over 2.5 goals | 21¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/barcelona-wins-by-over-25-goals-barcelona-wins-by-kalshi-kxlaligaspread-26may10barrma-bar2 |
| Real Madrid wins by over 1.5 goals | 9¢ | −1pp | $543 | kalshi | /markets/real-madrid-wins-by-over-15-goals-real-madrid-wins-kalshi-kxlaligaspread-26may10barrma-rma1 |
| Celta Vigo wins by over 1.5 goals | 11¢ | −2pp | $415 | kalshi | /markets/celta-vigo-wins-by-over-15-goals-celta-vigo-wins-b-kalshi-kxlaligaspread-26may09atmrcc-rcc1 |
| Atletico wins by over 1.5 goals | 22¢ | +2pp | $356 | kalshi | /markets/atletico-wins-by-over-15-goals-atletico-wins-by-ov-kalshi-kxlaligaspread-26may09atmrcc-atm1 |
| Real Madrid wins by over 2.5 goals | 3¢ | ±0 | $345 | kalshi | /markets/real-madrid-wins-by-over-25-goals-real-madrid-wins-kalshi-kxlaligaspread-26may10barrma-rma2 |
| Getafe wins by over 2.5 goals | 4¢ | ±0 | $1 | kalshi | /markets/getafe-wins-by-over-25-goals-getafe-wins-by-over-2-kalshi-kxlaligaspread-26may10oviget-get2 |
| Real Madrid wins by over 2.5 goals | 30¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/real-madrid-wins-by-over-25-goals-real-madrid-wins-kalshi-kxlaligaspread-26may14rmaovi-rma2 |
| Real Madrid wins by over 1.5 goals | 53¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/real-madrid-wins-by-over-15-goals-real-madrid-wins-kalshi-kxlaligaspread-26may14rmaovi-rma1 |
| Girona wins by over 2.5 goals | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/girona-wins-by-over-25-goals-girona-wins-by-over-2-kalshi-kxlaligaspread-26may14girrso-gir2 |
| Girona wins by over 1.5 goals | 17¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/girona-wins-by-over-15-goals-girona-wins-by-over-1-kalshi-kxlaligaspread-26may14girrso-gir1 |
| Real Sociedad wins by over 1.5 goals | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/real-sociedad-wins-by-over-15-goals-real-sociedad-kalshi-kxlaligaspread-26may14girrso-rso1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 7 |
| 2026-05-03 | 10 |
| 2026-05-06 | 10 |
| 2026-05-07 | 15 |
| 2026-05-08 | 16 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Real Madrid wins by over 1.5 goals +11pp 41→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Barcelona wins by over 1.5 goals +8pp 24→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Barcelona wins by over 2.5 goals +7pp 8→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Celta Vigo wins by over 1.5 goals +6pp 2→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Atletico wins by over 2.5 goals +5pp 2→7¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/laligaspread
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=laligaspread

## License

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