# Who will win the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election

> Karen Bass leads at 57%, runner-up 27% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lamayor1r
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:39.902Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-06-02

## Headline

- Leader: Karen Bass at 57%
- Runner-up: Spencer Pratt at 27%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karen Bass | 57¢ | +2pp | $228 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-first-round-of-the-los-angeles-ma-kalshi-kxlamayor1r-26-kbas |
| Spencer Pratt | 27¢ | +2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-first-round-of-the-los-angeles-ma-kalshi-kxlamayor1r-26-spra |
| Nithya Raman | 15¢ | −6pp | $387 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-first-round-of-the-los-angeles-ma-kalshi-kxlamayor1r-26-nram |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Karen Bass | Spencer Pratt | Nithya Raman |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 66 | 6 | 16 |
| 2026-05-02 | 35 | 23 | 30 |
| 2026-05-08 | 56 | 26 | 16 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 28 | — |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Karen Bass +25pp 18→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Karen Bass −17pp 35→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Karen Bass −14pp 49→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Karen Bass +11pp 43→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Nithya Raman −10pp 32→22¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the estimated likelihood that incumbent Mayor Karen Bass will receive the most votes in Los Angeles's non-partisan mayoral election's first round, currently priced at 38%. The current level reflects a competitive race with multiple viable candidates. Bass faces significant competition from Spencer Pratt, who is priced at 31%, with a runner-up candidate at 30%, indicating a fragmented field where no candidate has commanding support. Key factors driving this probability include Bass's incumbent advantage offset by potential voter dissatisfaction with homelessness and public safety issues, the strength of Pratt's fundraising and name recognition, and whether turnout favors establishment or anti-establishment candidates. The election results themselves will definitively resolve this outcome, providing the clearest catalyst for probability movement as voting data becomes available.

### Key factors

- Bass's incumbent advantage versus voter sentiment on homelessness and public safety performance in Los Angeles
- Spencer Pratt's fundraising totals and polling trajectory relative to Bass in recent surveys
- Fragmentation of the field with three candidates polling within 5-8 percentage points of each other
- Turnout composition and whether early/mail voting patterns favor establishment or anti-establishment candidates
- Endorsement patterns and late-stage campaign momentum in the weeks immediately preceding the election

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lamayor1r
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lamayor1r
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.