# Will Karen Bass qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 65% across 3 contracts — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lamayoradvance
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.473Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2028-06-01

## Headline

- Probability: 65% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $45K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Pratt | 70¢ | −1pp | $20K | kalshi | /markets/will-spencer-pratt-qualify-for-the-runoff-in-the-2-kalshi-kxlamayoradvance-26jun02-spra |
| Karen Bass | 91¢ | +1pp | $16K | kalshi | /markets/will-karen-bass-qualify-for-the-runoff-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxlamayoradvance-26jun02-kbas |
| Nithya Raman | 35¢ | +1pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/will-nithya-raman-qualify-for-the-runoff-in-the-20-kalshi-kxlamayoradvance-26jun02-nram |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 63 |
| 2026-05-14 | 52 |
| 2026-05-21 | 62 |
| 2026-05-28 | 88 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-26 · Karen Bass +5pp 91→96¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-26 · Nithya Raman −4pp 20→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-23 · Spencer Pratt +3pp 77→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-24 · Spencer Pratt −3pp 80→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · Nithya Raman +3pp 18→21¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lamayoradvance
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lamayoradvance
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.