# Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary

> Closed. Last odds frozen 18 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lamayorprimaryexact
Updated: 2026-06-16T07:20:50.157Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-06-02

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bass, Raman, Pratt | 97¢ | −1pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-exact-finishing-order-be-in-the-2026-los-kalshi-kxlamayorprimaryexact-26jun02-bas-ram-pra |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | 29 |
| 2026-06-03 | 36 |
| 2026-06-09 | 100 |
| 2026-06-13 | 99 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Bass, Pratt, and Raman will finish first, second, and third respectively in Los Angeles's June 2026 mayoral primary. The 47% lean toward this specific ordering over alternatives (such as Bass-Raman-Pratt at 32%) suggests modest confidence in this outcome among traders. The primary driver appears to be incumbent Mayor Karen Bass's polling strength and name recognition, though the relatively fragmented probabilities across six distinct orderings indicate substantial uncertainty about the secondary finishers. The June primary election will directly resolve this market by producing the actual finishing order. Until then, shifts in polling data, candidate endorsements, or late campaign momentum could reallocate probability mass between the competing orderings, particularly between the top two scenarios which together account for most market activity.

### Key factors

- Bass's current polling position and whether she maintains or loses ground in the two weeks before the June primary
- Pratt's campaign performance and ability to consolidate support as the second-place finisher versus Raman's ground organization and demographic appeal
- Recent polling releases or endorsements that shift expected vote shares among the three candidates
- Voter turnout patterns in Los Angeles that could disproportionately affect which second-tier candidate captures more votes
- The actual June 2026 primary election results, which will determine the exact three-candidate finishing order

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lamayorprimaryexact
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lamayorprimaryexact
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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