# Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 4%

> Karen Bass, ≥2% leads at 48%, runner-up 36% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lamov
Updated: 2026-08-10T07:20:50.318Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Karen Bass, ≥2% at 48%
- Runner-up: Karen Bass, ≥4% at 36%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $73

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karen Bass, ≥2% | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-karen-bass-in-the-2-kalshi-kxlamov-kxmayorla26kbas-kbas-p51 |
| Karen Bass, ≥4% | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-karen-bass-in-the-2-kalshi-kxlamov-kxmayorla26kbas-kbas-p52 |
| Karen Bass, ≥6% | 30¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-karen-bass-in-the-2-kalshi-kxlamov-kxmayorla26kbas-kbas-p53 |
| Nithya Raman, ≥2% | 30¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-nithya-raman-in-the-kalshi-kxlamov-kxmayorla26nram-nram-p51 |
| Karen Bass, ≥8% | 26¢ | +17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-karen-bass-in-the-2-kalshi-kxlamov-kxmayorla26kbas-kbas-p54 |
| Karen Bass, ≥10% | 23¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-karen-bass-in-the-2-kalshi-kxlamov-kxmayorla26kbas-kbas-p55 |
| Nithya Raman, ≥4% | 21¢ | +17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-nithya-raman-in-the-kalshi-kxlamov-kxmayorla26nram-nram-p52 |
| Nithya Raman, ≥6% | 17¢ | +13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-nithya-raman-in-the-kalshi-kxlamov-kxmayorla26nram-nram-p53 |
| Nithya Raman, ≥8% | 14¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-nithya-raman-in-the-kalshi-kxlamov-kxmayorla26nram-nram-p54 |
| Nithya Raman, ≥10% | 8¢ | ±0 | $73 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-nithya-raman-in-the-kalshi-kxlamov-kxmayorla26nram-nram-p55 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Karen Bass, ≥2% | Karen Bass, ≥4% | Karen Bass, ≥6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | — | 36 | 30 |
| 2026-07-16 | 47 | — | — |
| 2026-07-17 | — | 35 | 31 |
| 2026-07-21 | 46 | 36 | — |
| 2026-07-23 | 47 | — | — |
| 2026-08-04 | — | — | 25 |
| 2026-08-07 | 48 | — | 28 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-04 · Karen Bass, ≥8% −25pp 27→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Nithya Raman, ≥4% −23pp 26→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Nithya Raman, ≥6% −18pp 21→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Karen Bass, ≥8% +17pp 1→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Nithya Raman, ≥4% +17pp 4→21¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects whether Karen Bass will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by a margin exceeding 4 percentage points. At 53%, traders view this outcome as slightly more likely than not, but substantial uncertainty remains. Bass's viability as the likely frontrunner is evident in her 53-cent contract (winning by 2%+), yet the tighter 4-point threshold shows traders are pricing in meaningful competition that could narrow her advantage. The outcome depends on her incumbent strength, challenger consolidation—particularly between Nithya Raman and other candidates—and voter turnout patterns. The 2026 election itself serves as the resolution event; no interim primary or polling threshold triggers a change before then. Kalshi trading volume remains modest, suggesting limited liquidity and the potential for sentiment shifts as the election approaches and candidates' campaigns develop.

### Key factors

- Karen Bass's incumbent advantage and approval rating as sitting mayor versus any primary or general election headwinds
- Whether challenger support fragments among multiple candidates or consolidates behind one opponent, materially affecting Bass's final margin
- Historical Los Angeles mayoral election margins and turnout demographics to establish whether 4-point victories are typical or exceptional for sitting mayors
- The timing and results of any polls or endorsements released before election day that shift voter perception of Bass's strength
- Public financing levels and campaign spending disparity between Bass and her strongest challenger, which influences campaign reach and mobilization

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lamov
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lamov
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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