# Will the margin of victory for Julia Letlow in the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate primary be between 6% and 9%

> Closed. Last odds frozen 4 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/larsenmov
Updated: 2026-06-03T19:20:13.193Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-05-16

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Letlow, 3-6% | 3¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-julia-letlow-in-the-kalshi-kxlarsenmov-26may16-jlet-p4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 23 |
| 2026-05-19 | 1 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 26% probability that Julia Letlow will win Louisiana's 2026 Republican Senate primary by a margin between 6% and 9%. The relatively low probability reflects uncertainty about whether her victory, if it occurs, will fall within this narrow band rather than by a larger or smaller margin. The outcome depends on the Republican primary field composition—whether other strong candidates enter the race and how consolidated the anti-Letlow vote becomes. Primary voting on Election Day will definitively resolve whether she wins and by what exact margin. Key uncertainties include candidate entry decisions, turnout patterns, and how vote distribution across competing candidates affects her final margin.

### Key factors

- Field size and candidate quality: Whether credible Republican challengers besides the current runner-up enter the race materially affects vote concentration and margin outcomes
- Letlow's baseline support: Polling data on her current standing versus potential rivals indicates whether she has a natural ceiling or floor in the 6-9% margin range
- Campaign dynamics: Endorsements, spending, and candidate positioning in the months before voting could shift vote distribution enough to move Letlow's margin outside this specific band
- Primary turnout: Total voter participation and demographic composition of those voting influences whether Letlow's core support translates to a 6-9% or different margin
- Runoff possibility: Louisiana's runoff rules mean results depend on first-round performance; if no candidate reaches the threshold, dynamics change entirely

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/larsenmov
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=larsenmov
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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