# How many times will Lawrence O'Donnell say Trump during next The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 39% across 19 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lastwordcount
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:36:00.842Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 39% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 37% / Polymarket 45% — 8pp spread
- 24h volume: $21K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 13 | 55¢ | +4pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26may-13 |
| Above 12 | 79¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26may-12 |
| Above 14 | 13¢ | −3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26may-14 |
| Exactly 10 songs | 3¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-spots-on-the-billboard-hot-100s-top-10-wi-kalshi-kxtopbbspotsdra-26may30-10 |
| 3 | 42¢ | ±0 | $2K | polymarket | /markets/how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-polymarket-0x497a043a5a848906d653e4a60e34df7131a9d7e059ce2ce70f05b4311360c9cf |
| Above 10 | 93¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26may-10 |
| 5 | 23¢ | −1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-polymarket-0xaddf36ab28b5c372e4ed06a17767eefd101b363b846cf3c223efc31f8cd260a8 |
| Above 15 | 4¢ | ±0 | $529 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26may-15 |
| 2+ golf major championship wins | 8¢ | −1pp | $367 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-golf-major-championships-will-scottie-sch-kalshi-kxgolfmajors-ssch26-2 |
| At least 210000 | 27¢ | +5pp | $356 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-initial-jobless-claims-will-there-be-the-kalshi-kxjoblessclaims-26may07-210000 |
| At least 200000 | 59¢ | +2pp | $271 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-initial-jobless-claims-will-there-be-the-kalshi-kxjoblessclaims-26may07-200000 |
| 1-100 | 70¢ | +20pp | $269 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2026-1-100-polymarket-0x326df6a10a6cdd74bdc1ef77906037e90b1f1d6dd1fdcbf6580aea62de094a96 |
| 1+ golf major championship wins | 49¢ | +1pp | $176 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-golf-major-championships-will-scottie-sch-kalshi-kxgolfmajors-ssch26-1 |
| Above 160 | 38¢ | −4pp | $171 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26b-160 |
| Above 170 | 24¢ | ±0 | $109 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26b-170 |
| At least 14.00M bpd | 30¢ | +17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-oil-barrels-per-day-will-the-us-produce-t-kalshi-kxbarrels-26-14.00 |
| 10 freshmen drafted | 37¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-freshmen-players-will-be-drafted-in-the-t-kalshi-kxnbadraftcat-26fre-10 |
| At least 14.10M bpd | 24¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-oil-barrels-per-day-will-the-us-produce-t-kalshi-kxbarrels-26-14.10 |
| At least 430 | 56¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-oil-rigs-will-the-us-have-at-the-end-of-t-kalshi-kxoilrigs-26-430 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 38 |
| 2026-04-19 | 38 |
| 2026-04-26 | 30 |
| 2026-05-03 | 42 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · At least 14.00M bpd +37pp 10→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · At least 14.00M bpd −34pp 47→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · At least 14.10M bpd +32pp 5→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · At least 14.00M bpd −31pp 41→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · At least 14.10M bpd −29pp 34→5¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lastwordcount
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lastwordcount
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.