# Will The Progressives win the 2026 Latvia parliamentary elections

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 4 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/latviaparliament
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:41.750Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Unity | 33¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-unity-win-the-2026-latvia-parliamentary-e-kalshi-kxlatviaparliament-26dec31-jv |
| National Alliance | 16¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-national-alliance-win-the-2026-latvia-parliam-kalshi-kxlatviaparliament-26dec31-na |
| The Progressives | 15¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-progressives-win-the-2026-latvia-parliame-kalshi-kxlatviaparliament-26dec31-pro |
| Latvia First | 22¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-latvia-first-win-the-2026-latvia-parliamentar-kalshi-kxlatviaparliament-26dec31-lpv |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 39 |
| 2026-04-23 | 21 |
| 2026-05-02 | 31 |
| 2026-05-08 | 33 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · New Unity +3pp 31→34¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 21% chance that The Progressives party will win the most seats in Latvia's 2026 parliamentary elections. The current probability reflects Latvia's fragmented political landscape, where multiple parties typically compete for influence. Key factors driving this estimate include The Progressives' recent polling performance, historical electoral volatility in Latvia, and the broader coalition-building dynamics that determine election outcomes. The probability will likely shift as Latvia approaches its official election date, when updated polling data becomes available and campaign momentum becomes clearer. The election itself will provide definitive resolution of this question.

### Key factors

- The Progressives' standing in recent public opinion polls relative to competing parties in Latvia
- Historical precedent for electoral surprises or significant polling shifts in Latvian parliamentary elections
- Coalition dynamics and strategic alliances formed by The Progressives and other parties heading into the vote
- Voter turnout patterns and demographic shifts that could affect which parties mobilize their base most effectively
- Major policy events or political developments in Latvia that could reshape voter preferences in the weeks before the election

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/latviaparliament
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=latviaparliament
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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