# How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026

> Above 12 leads at 96%, runner-up 95% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 43 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/launchcountm
Updated: 2026-07-12T21:20:49.425Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-07

## Headline

- Leader: Above 12 at 96%
- Runner-up: Above 13 at 95%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $125

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 12 | 96¢ | +54pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-all-us-licensed-commercial-kalshi-kxlaunchcountm-jul-12 |
| Above 13 | 95¢ | −23pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-all-us-licensed-commercial-kalshi-kxlaunchcountm-jul-13 |
| Above 14 | 92¢ | +25pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-all-us-licensed-commercial-kalshi-kxlaunchcountm-jul-14 |
| Above 15 | 85¢ | +44pp | $24 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-all-us-licensed-commercial-kalshi-kxlaunchcountm-jul-15 |
| Above 16 | 57¢ | +30pp | $63 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-all-us-licensed-commercial-kalshi-kxlaunchcountm-jul-16 |
| Above 17 | 39¢ | +13pp | $38 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-all-us-licensed-commercial-kalshi-kxlaunchcountm-jul-17 |
| Above 18 | 20¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-all-us-licensed-commercial-kalshi-kxlaunchcountm-jul-18 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 12 | Above 13 | Above 14 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | 75 | 67 | 52 |
| 2026-07-01 | — | 88 | 66 |
| 2026-07-02 | 93 | — | 65 |
| 2026-07-09 | 32 | 90 | 64 |
| 2026-07-10 | 86 | 67 | 89 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-09 · Above 12 −61pp 93→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Above 12 +54pp 32→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Above 15 +44pp 27→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Above 16 +30pp 29→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Above 14 +25pp 64→89¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market is pricing in a 91% probability that U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers will exceed 11 launches during July 2026. This represents a high confidence that the industry will maintain or accelerate launch activity during the month. The probability reflects historical launch cadence data and scheduled missions known to operators, though the range of outcomes—from 12 to 16+ launches—shows material uncertainty about whether providers will hit higher thresholds. Launch schedules depend on weather delays, technical readiness, and customer demand timing. The resolution occurs on August 1, 2026, when actual July launch count becomes known. Between now and then, schedule announcements or delays from major providers like SpaceX, Axiom, and Relativity would be the primary drivers shifting market pricing.

### Key factors

- Historical monthly launch rates for U.S. commercial operators and whether they sustain or increase from recent monthly averages
- Publicly announced launch schedules for July 2026 from major providers and any schedule slip notifications issued before month-end
- Weather and technical readiness patterns typical for Florida, Texas, and California launch sites during summer months
- The definition of 'U.S.-licensed commercial launch provider' and whether suborbital or orbital flights count toward the total
- Actual launch attempt and success/failure resolution data released publicly or via FAA tracking after July 31, 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/launchcountm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=launchcountm

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.