# How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026

> Above 13 leads at 96%, runner-up 94% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/launches
Updated: 2026-07-13T01:20:48.701Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-07

## Headline

- Leader: Above 13 at 96%
- Runner-up: Above 14 at 94%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 13 | 96¢ | +9pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-all-us-licensed-commercial-kalshi-kxlaunches-26jul-13 |
| Above 14 | 94¢ | +22pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-all-us-licensed-commercial-kalshi-kxlaunches-26jul-14 |
| Above 15 | 83¢ | +13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-all-us-licensed-commercial-kalshi-kxlaunches-26jul-15 |
| Above 16 | 53¢ | +20pp | $127 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-all-us-licensed-commercial-kalshi-kxlaunches-26jul-16 |
| Above 17 | 41¢ | +19pp | $298 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-all-us-licensed-commercial-kalshi-kxlaunches-26jul-17 |
| Above 18 | 23¢ | +2pp | $904 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-all-us-licensed-commercial-kalshi-kxlaunches-26jul-18 |
| Above 19 | 6¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-all-us-licensed-commercial-kalshi-kxlaunches-26jul-19 |
| Above 20 | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-all-us-licensed-commercial-kalshi-kxlaunches-26jul-20 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 13 | Above 14 | Above 15 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | 75 | 68 | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 88 | 90 | 72 |
| 2026-07-10 | 97 | — | 85 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-09 · Above 14 +22pp 68→90¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Above 16 +20pp 35→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Above 17 +19pp 22→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Above 13 +13pp 75→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Above 15 +13pp 72→85¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market indicates 87% confidence that U.S.-licensed commercial operators will conduct more than 13 orbital launches during July 2026. This reflects expectations about near-term launch cadence from providers including SpaceX, Blue Origin, and others operating under U.S. licenses. The probability is driven by historical launch rates and current manifest visibility, weighted against potential delays from technical issues, weather, or regulatory holds. Resolution depends on final July 2026 launch counts, which will be confirmed through official FAA records and company announcements. The wide spread in contract prices—from 5¢ for above-20 launches to 87¢ for above-13—suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether activity clusters at 14-16 launches or extends above 19, hinging on how many operators execute their scheduled missions without slip.

### Key factors

- Historical U.S. commercial launch cadence in recent months, which sets baseline expectations for July activity
- Current published manifests and scheduled launch windows for SpaceX, Blue Origin, Relativity, and other licensed operators during July 2026
- Weather patterns, technical delays, and regulatory clearance timelines that could compress or expand the achievable launch window
- The gap between 13 and 19 launches in contract pricing suggests market uncertainty about mid-range outcomes (14-18 launches)
- Whether operators maintain aggressive scheduling or absorb delays from prior months into the July window

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/launches
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=launches

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.