# Will Rory Connor win Tewaaraton Award

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 6 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/laxtewaaraton
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.073Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-22

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $705

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Lyght | 5¢ | −1pp | $374 | kalshi | /markets/will-shawn-lyght-win-tewaaraton-award-shawn-lyght-kalshi-kxlaxtewaaraton-26-slyg |
| Joey Spallina | 50¢ | ±0 | $308 | kalshi | /markets/will-joey-spallina-win-tewaaraton-award-joey-spall-kalshi-kxlaxtewaaraton-26-jspa |
| Owen Duffy | 4¢ | −1pp | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-owen-duffy-win-tewaaraton-award-owen-duffy-kalshi-kxlaxtewaaraton-26-oduf |
| Nate Kabiri | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nate-kabiri-win-tewaaraton-award-nate-kabiri-kalshi-kxlaxtewaaraton-26-nkab |
| Willem Firth | 3¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-willem-firth-win-tewaaraton-award-willem-firt-kalshi-kxlaxtewaaraton-26-wfir |
| McCabe Millon | 14¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mccabe-millon-win-tewaaraton-award-mccabe-mil-kalshi-kxlaxtewaaraton-26-mmil |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 23 |
| 2026-04-25 | 40 |
| 2026-05-02 | 58 |
| 2026-05-08 | 29 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · McCabe Millon +11pp 3→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Shawn Lyght +3pp 1→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Joey Spallina −3pp 56→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Nate Kabiri +3pp 1→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Willem Firth +3pp 1→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 22% probability reflects the market's assessment that Rory Connor will win the Tewaaraton Award, college lacrosse's highest individual honor. The relatively low odds suggest Connor faces significant competition from other elite players in the sport. The probability would likely shift based on his performance statistics through the spring season—goals, assists, ground balls, and defensive metrics—and how those compare to other top contenders. The award typically resolves in late May or early June, after the college lacrosse regular season concludes and the NCAA tournament completes, giving voters a full picture of player contributions throughout the year.

### Key factors

- Rory Connor's goal and point production rate compared to consensus top candidates for the award
- His defensive metrics and ground ball winning percentage relative to other elite attackmen and midfielders
- Team performance and tournament success, as voters often weight individual talent within context of team results
- Injury status or playing time availability through the remainder of the season
- Strength of schedule remaining and visibility in nationally televised games against ranked opponents

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/laxtewaaraton
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=laxtewaaraton

## License

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