# Will the live cattle close price be above $261.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lcattlemon
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.238Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-29

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| above $5013.99 | 12¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-501399-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldmon-26may2917-t5013.99 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 5 |
| 2026-05-03 | 8 |
| 2026-05-06 | 10 |
| 2026-05-07 | 12 |
| 2026-05-08 | 11 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · above $5013.99 +3pp 5→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market asks whether live cattle futures will close above $261.99 on April 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT. The 8% probability reflects market expectations that prices will remain below this threshold at that specific time. Live cattle prices are primarily driven by feed costs (especially corn and hay availability), herd size dynamics, and broader commodity market movements. The resolution depends on USDA livestock reports released throughout Q2 2026, cattle inventory data, and spot market trading activity as the April 30 settlement approaches. Feed cost pressures and processing demand in spring months will be key determinants of whether the contract settles in-the-money or out-of-the-money.

### Key factors

- USDA Livestock Quarterly reports (Q1 and Q2 2026) showing cattle inventory levels and herd composition
- Corn and hay futures prices in Q2 2026, which directly affect feedlot operating costs and producer willingness to sell
- Live cattle futures spot price trajectory from May through late April—current market pricing relative to the $261.99 strike level
- Weekly cattle slaughter data and processing capacity utilization rates, indicating supply pressure on the market
- Spring weather conditions affecting grazing conditions and feed availability, influencing seasonal price patterns

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lcattlemon
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lcattlemon

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.