# LCK Challengers League 2026 Winner

> FEARX Youth leads at 43%, runner-up 37% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lck-challengers-league-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.243Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-13

## Headline

- Leader: FEARX Youth at 43%
- Runner-up: SOOPers Challengers at 37%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FEARX Youth | 43¢ | −9pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lck-challengers-league-2026-winner-fearx-youth-polymarket-0x4caf44a6d45f28d4a48d4769418714b0ea93fed37a09928d13fa5220c9483bd8 |
| SOOPers Challengers | 37¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lck-challengers-league-2026-winner-soopers-challen-polymarket-0xf2b43eae4580ba2e98993a36cb8d397b274d178d6a0c76fd059ad920a53c3a31 |
| HLE Challengers | 37¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lck-challengers-league-2026-winner-hle-challengers-polymarket-0x1c3fbcbee4b4eaa97b8cad0409d8b9c0056c1c409d5a21af826c2a885ea34f14 |
| KT Rolster Challengers | 29¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lck-challengers-league-2026-winner-kt-rolster-chal-polymarket-0xc10a05f9f6bcd3f81116e7043edcb8a9b0f2831d77edd31af2795779c4bc62bd |
| T1 Esports Academy | 28¢ | +8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lck-challengers-league-2026-winner-t1-esports-acad-polymarket-0x59eb2355686ab8704c51c5233b7ca03cac1b5816021edfae405d70529bfc0b75 |
| Dplus Challengers | 17¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lck-challengers-league-2026-winner-dplus-challenge-polymarket-0xa550647238033befe7b7ac28dc610bef3d05109b738bc66dde9f4aceda918e62 |
| Nongshim Challengers | 7¢ | −33pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lck-challengers-league-2026-winner-nongshim-challe-polymarket-0x31f8942c8d949011a4a44e0aa757fcfac455ff72bceb7839f8630bc7c1bcdfe2 |
| Gen.G Global Academy | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lck-challengers-league-2026-winner-geng-global-aca-polymarket-0x7677b9676d64f0ddbd2c836e9a3ef263eaedac0d7cd720f1a42b0b03b58a7f1a |
| DRX Challengers | 3¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lck-challengers-league-2026-winner-drx-challengers-polymarket-0x1cf058da45baf1d4d4881c40b888d495fd2b2c8479537979312ed429d522a759 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | FEARX Youth | SOOPers Challengers | HLE Challengers |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 26 | 29 | 50 |
| 2026-05-02 | 29 | 17 | 44 |
| 2026-05-08 | 30 | 34 | 29 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Nongshim Challengers −33pp 39→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · SOOPers Challengers +23pp 10→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · SOOPers Challengers −12pp 29→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Dplus Challengers +10pp 8→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · T1 Esports Academy −9pp 49→40¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 17% probability represents the market's assessment that a specific outcome (identified by the contract leader) will occur in the LCK Challengers League 2026 tournament. The relatively low probability reflects either a crowded field of competitive alternatives or confidence in other contenders. Market depth appears modest, with top contracts trading between 14¢ and 22¢ and daily volumes under $2,000 across related LCK futures. The current price is primarily influenced by team roster strength, recent performance trends in Korean esports, and historical competitive patterns in the LCK ecosystem. The main catalyst for significant price movement would be roster announcements, playoff bracket releases, or head-to-head matchup results that clarify team competitive positioning. As the 2026 season progresses, match outcomes and injury status will provide concrete data that either validates or contradicts current probability assignments.

### Key factors

- Market liquidity for this contract is relatively low at $1,719 24h volume, meaning large trades could shift prices meaningfully
- The runner-up contract trades at 7%, indicating the outcome space is distributed across at least 3+ viable competitors rather than concentrated
- Related LCK contracts show the field is fragmented (T1 14¢, Hanwha Life 21¢, KT Rolster 18¢), suggesting no single team has commanding odds
- Trading volume across linked Polymarket contracts remains below $2,000 daily, indicating limited institutional participation or awareness of this specific market
- The 17% leader price versus lower volumes suggests this may reflect recent trading activity rather than deep consensus from active market makers

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lck-challengers-league-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lck-challengers-league-winner

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