# Inflation surge in 2026

> At least 4.5% leads at 19%, runner-up 14% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lcpimaxyoy
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:51.306Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-14

## Headline

- Leader: At least 4.5% at 19%
- Runner-up: At least 5.0% at 14%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 4.5% | 19¢ | −1pp | $934 | kalshi | /markets/inflation-surge-in-2026-at-least-45-kalshi-kxlcpimaxyoy-27-p4.5 |
| At least 5.0% | 14¢ | −3pp | $305 | kalshi | /markets/inflation-surge-in-2026-at-least-50-kalshi-kxlcpimaxyoy-27-p5 |
| At least 5.5% | 6¢ | ±0 | $83 | kalshi | /markets/inflation-surge-in-2026-at-least-55-kalshi-kxlcpimaxyoy-27-p5.5 |
| At least 6.0% | 5¢ | ±0 | $98 | kalshi | /markets/inflation-surge-in-2026-at-least-60-kalshi-kxlcpimaxyoy-27-p6.0 |
| At least 6.5% | 5¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/inflation-surge-in-2026-at-least-65-kalshi-kxlcpimaxyoy-27-p6.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 4.5% | At least 5.0% | At least 5.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 63 | 38 | 22 |
| 2026-06-12 | 42 | 22 | 16 |
| 2026-06-18 | 24 | 14 | 5 |
| 2026-06-19 | 22 | — | 6 |
| 2026-06-23 | 20 | 14 | 6 |
| 2026-06-25 | 19 | — | 6 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · At least 5.0% −3pp 17→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · At least 6.5% +3pp 2→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing an 87% likelihood that inflation will exceed 3.6% for the year ending April 2026, with related contracts suggesting meaningful probability mass around 4%+ thresholds. This high probability reflects current economic conditions where price pressures remain elevated relative to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The assessment depends critically on incoming CPI data over the next several months and Fed policy decisions. Core inflation readings above 2.5% are priced at 92¢, indicating broad-based price growth is expected. Key drivers include energy prices, labor market tightness, monetary policy persistence, and consumer spending patterns. The May 2026 CPI release for April data will be a major checkpoint for resolving whether inflation remains entrenched above historical norms or begins subsiding toward target.

### Key factors

- Year-to-date CPI data as of May 2026 shows cumulative inflation trajectory relative to 3.6-4.5% annualized thresholds
- Federal Reserve policy stance and recent interest rate decisions, which influence near-term inflation dynamics through 2026
- Core CPI running above 2.5% (priced at 92¢) suggests services and non-energy inflation remain sticky
- Energy and commodity price movements, which directly affect headline CPI readings in the April-April measurement window
- Labor market conditions and wage growth rates, which influence pricing power and consumer demand through mid-2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lcpimaxyoy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lcpimaxyoy
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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