# LCS 2026 Spring Winner

> LYON leads at 26%, runner-up 24% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lcs-spring-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.776Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-14

## Headline

- Leader: LYON at 26%
- Runner-up: Cloud9 at 24%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LYON | 26¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lcs-2026-spring-winner-lyon-polymarket-0xbb00c0a2febb661d1a216a8e83b5ac65a4d574ce90eb94a1bfbc3967eb3704ac |
| Cloud9 | 24¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lcs-2026-spring-winner-cloud9-polymarket-0x226c71868c59b9999980d55795804f6a7bfd189510110c32b3f944b57f8cc72d |
| Team Liquid | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lcs-2026-spring-winner-team-liquid-polymarket-0x47605fddde0e97c8936cb2b0e63526f6ddd43ae5e99cdbe8a947b5bc26681aa1 |
| Sentinels | 14¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lcs-2026-spring-winner-sentinels-polymarket-0xfd10d7f3519c79ec967eff7a1d52c21c379a9fdff644ae670ec54265821e7741 |
| FlyQuest | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lcs-2026-spring-winner-flyquest-polymarket-0xdc946f6247437775000472dadb4c0c448b53c9f6f448bf407ffeb26140f15648 |
| Shopify Rebellion | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lcs-2026-spring-winner-shopify-rebellion-polymarket-0x756735aa676f541afb9f03ac77361b1daa1eac1a6cec8727a3908ae278aa4b64 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | LYON | Cloud9 | Team Liquid |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 22 | 15 | 27 |
| 2026-05-02 | 22 | 14 | 28 |
| 2026-05-03 | 24 | 13 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 26 | 22 | 36 |
| 2026-05-07 | 27 | 24 | 33 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | — | 32 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · FlyQuest −10pp 28→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Cloud9 +9pp 13→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Team Liquid +8pp 28→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · FlyQuest −5pp 18→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Sentinels −4pp 17→13¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Team Liquid is priced at 27% to win the 2026 LCS Spring season, making them the favorite but far from certain. This reflects market expectations about their roster strength, recent performance, and head-to-head matchups against competitors like Cloud9 (13%) and FlyQuest (18%). The probability could shift based on injury reports, roster changes, or early season results once the regular season begins. The LCS Spring Split concludes with playoffs, typically held in late spring, which will definitively determine the winner and resolve all contracts. Near-term catalyst: the start of regular season matches will provide actual game data to replace pre-season expectations.

### Key factors

- Team Liquid's current 27% leader price implies 73% probability assigned collectively to all other outcomes, indicating competitive parity in market expectations
- Cloud9 at 13% and FlyQuest at 18% are viable alternatives; no team commands majority-favorite status despite Liquid's lead
- 24-hour trading volumes are low ($34-79 per contract), suggesting limited liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads that could exaggerate price movements
- Regular season play beginning soon will generate objective performance data to calibrate prices versus pre-season assessments and roster evaluations
- LCS Spring playoff structure and single-elimination format means late-season momentum and bracket positioning carry material weight in championship outcomes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lcs-spring-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lcs-spring-winner

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.