# LD Alajuelense vs. Puntarenas FC - More Markets: LD Alajuelense (-2.5)

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ld-alajuelense-vs-puntarenas-fc-more-markets-ld-alajuelense
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:35:43.886Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 46% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $748

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 9¢ | −20pp | $384 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0x2ae2ebd1fd8f36dee4140d1e5d50addade8319b01b9486d126f98e2e54d468c8 |
| O/U 2.5 | 64¢ | — | $254 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xd0a2f0efd684af9051d535ebfb688b7037a3996508900509e3edc8d229d702d4 |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $82 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x4612ca5173a5a4fcf85507aeb04a8592bc10dda7e82aa160ccf2a48ee08c3182 |
| O/U 2.5 | 57¢ | — | $28 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-mo-polymarket-0x64562d2a13d04c9e590ca640c26a2f7cce42de7a8e7a0056e3ffc7c4226092f6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 28 |
| 2026-05-03 | 26 |
| 2026-05-06 | 35 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) −20pp 26→6¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that LD Alajuelense will defeat Puntarenas FC by more than 2.5 goals in an upcoming match. At 46%, this suggests near-parity in market expectations, with slight skepticism about a decisive Alajuelense victory. The probability is likely influenced by each team's current form, goal-scoring records, and head-to-head history. The match itself serves as the primary catalyst that will definitively resolve this market—once the final score is recorded, the outcome becomes certain. Teams in stronger league positions typically generate higher win probabilities, while injuries to key strikers or defensive vulnerabilities could shift expectations significantly in either direction before kickoff.

### Key factors

- LD Alajuelense's recent goals-for and goals-against statistics compared to Puntarenas FC's defensive record
- Historical head-to-head results between these teams, particularly margin of victory patterns
- Current league standings and recent form (wins/losses/draws in last 5-10 matches)
- Availability of key players on both sides, particularly leading goal scorers or injured defenders
- Home/away advantage status and venue characteristics that may favor high-scoring or low-scoring outcomes

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ld-alajuelense-vs-puntarenas-fc-more-markets-ld-alajuelense
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ld-alajuelense-vs-puntarenas-fc-more-markets-ld-alajuelense

## License

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