# Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO

> Closed. Last odds frozen 14 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lead-bank-spacexs-ipo
Updated: 2026-05-25T07:20:12.261Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 85% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 85¢ | −3pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/lead-bank-in-spacexs-ipo-goldman-sachs-polymarket-0x5a4a06d086c9b4dae7bb5037cf8610dc50a045b7eedc056d2d3435dbfd684bed |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 38 |
| 2026-05-23 | 91 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Morgan Stanley will serve as lead underwriter for SpaceX's anticipated initial public offering. Currently priced at 50 cents, it represents a meaningful but not overwhelming market consensus, with Bank of America at 25 cents and Goldman Sachs at 18 cents as alternatives. The lead underwriter role carries significant prestige and fees, making it a competitive position among major investment banks. Market participants appear to be weighing factors including existing banking relationships with SpaceX leadership, historical precedent for which firms lead major tech IPOs, and each bank's current positioning within SpaceX's corporate finance ecosystem. Related contracts suggest markets expect SpaceX's IPO valuation in the $1.50-1.75 trillion range, though the lead underwriter selection will ultimately depend on Elon Musk's preference and negotiated terms with competing banks. The resolution will occur when SpaceX formally announces its IPO arrangements or completes the offering itself.

### Key factors

- Morgan Stanley's existing relationship with SpaceX and history of advising Musk on major transactions
- Relative trading volume and price stability across the three contracts ($128-141 per 24 hours) indicates moderate but sustained market interest
- Bank of America's 25-cent price reflects it as a credible alternative with established tech IPO track record
- Goldman Sachs' lower 18-cent price suggests market assigns it lower probability despite its investment banking prominence
- The 49-cent bid for Morgan Stanley (versus 50-cent mid) indicates some uncertainty persists despite it being the current leader

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

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