# Will Trea Turner lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 16 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbavg
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:50.490Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-22

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $126

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 10¢ | +2pp | $66 | kalshi | /markets/will-vladimir-guerrero-jr-lead-pro-baseball-in-bat-kalshi-kxleadermlbavg-26-vgue |
| Luis Arraez | 15¢ | −1pp | $60 | kalshi | /markets/will-luis-arraez-lead-pro-baseball-in-batting-aver-kalshi-kxleadermlbavg-26-larr |
| Jacob Wilson | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jacob-wilson-lead-pro-baseball-in-batting-ave-kalshi-kxleadermlbavg-26-jwil |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bobby-witt-jr-lead-pro-baseball-in-batting-av-kalshi-kxleadermlbavg-26-bwit |
| Yordan Alvarez | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yordan-alvarez-lead-pro-baseball-in-batting-a-kalshi-kxleadermlbavg-26-yalv |
| Yandy Diaz | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yandy-diaz-lead-pro-baseball-in-batting-avera-kalshi-kxleadermlbavg-26-ydia |
| Bo Bichette | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bo-bichette-lead-pro-baseball-in-batting-aver-kalshi-kxleadermlbavg-26-bbic |
| Chandler Simpson | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chandler-simpson-lead-pro-baseball-in-batting-kalshi-kxleadermlbavg-26-csim |
| Trea Turner | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trea-turner-lead-pro-baseball-in-batting-aver-kalshi-kxleadermlbavg-26-ttur |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ronald-acua-jr-lead-pro-baseball-in-batting-a-kalshi-kxleadermlbavg-26-aacu |
| Xavier Edwards | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-xavier-edwards-lead-pro-baseball-in-batting-a-kalshi-kxleadermlbavg-26-xedw |
| Ketel Marte | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ketel-marte-lead-pro-baseball-in-batting-aver-kalshi-kxleadermlbavg-26-kmar |
| Steven Kwan | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-steven-kwan-lead-pro-baseball-in-batting-aver-kalshi-kxleadermlbavg-26-skwa |
| Gabriel Moreno | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gabriel-moreno-lead-pro-baseball-in-batting-a-kalshi-kxleadermlbavg-26-gmor |
| Jake Mangum | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jake-mangum-lead-pro-baseball-in-batting-aver-kalshi-kxleadermlbavg-26-jman |
| Alec Bohm | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alec-bohm-lead-pro-baseball-in-batting-averag-kalshi-kxleadermlbavg-26-aboh |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 5 |
| 2026-04-20 | 10 |
| 2026-04-26 | 8 |
| 2026-05-01 | 10 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 5% chance that Trea Turner finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with the highest batting average among all players. The current probability reflects Turner's solid but not elite recent performance relative to other elite hitters on the market. Turner's actual batting average through the season would push this probability up if he maintains an exceptionally high contact rate and consistency, or down if competitors like Aaron Judge or other high-average hitters outpace him. The resolution depends entirely on final 2026 regular season statistics, which will be finalized after the season ends in late September 2026. Turner has been a reliable hitter but rarely leads the league in specific batting statistics, and the 5% figure suggests markets view him as a secondary candidate compared to other power hitters competing for offensive titles.

### Key factors

- Turner's career batting average ranks in the .290s, below the typical .310+ threshold for batting title contenders
- Competitors tracked on this market include Aaron Judge (who leads in OPS contracts at 51¢), suggesting markets favor other hitters for overall offensive dominance
- Batting average as a specific metric requires minimizing strikeouts while maintaining high contact rate—a different profile than home run or slugging leaders
- The 2026 season is already underway as of May 3, 2026, meaning Turner's early-season performance through two months provides concrete evidence of his pace
- Trading volume on batting average markets (20 Kalshi contracts) is lower than related markets like home runs, suggesting less market certainty in this specific category

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbavg
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leadermlbavg

## License

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