# Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 20 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbdoubles
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.513Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-22

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $158

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | 9¢ | ±0 | $158 | kalshi | /markets/will-matt-olson-lead-pro-baseball-in-doubles-for-t-kalshi-kxleadermlbdoubles-26-mols |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bobby-witt-jr-lead-pro-baseball-in-doubles-fo-kalshi-kxleadermlbdoubles-26-bwit |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-geraldo-perdomo-lead-pro-baseball-in-doubles-kalshi-kxleadermlbdoubles-26-gper |
| Aaron Judge | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-judge-lead-pro-baseball-in-doubles-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbdoubles-26-ajud |
| Shohei Ohtani | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shohei-ohtani-lead-pro-baseball-in-doubles-fo-kalshi-kxleadermlbdoubles-26-soht |
| Byron Buxton | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-byron-buxton-lead-pro-baseball-in-doubles-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbdoubles-26-bbux |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vladimir-guerrero-jr-lead-pro-baseball-in-dou-kalshi-kxleadermlbdoubles-26-vgue |
| Junior Caminero | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-junior-caminero-lead-pro-baseball-in-doubles-kalshi-kxleadermlbdoubles-26-jcam |
| Freddie Freeman | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-freddie-freeman-lead-pro-baseball-in-doubles-kalshi-kxleadermlbdoubles-26-ffre |
| José Ramírez | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jos-ramrez-lead-pro-baseball-in-doubles-for-t-kalshi-kxleadermlbdoubles-26-jram |
| Julio Rodríguez | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-julio-rodrguez-lead-pro-baseball-in-doubles-f-kalshi-kxleadermlbdoubles-26-jrod |
| Juan Soto | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-juan-soto-lead-pro-baseball-in-doubles-for-th-kalshi-kxleadermlbdoubles-26-jsot |
| Manny Machado | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-manny-machado-lead-pro-baseball-in-doubles-fo-kalshi-kxleadermlbdoubles-26-mmac |
| Cal Raleigh | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cal-raleigh-lead-pro-baseball-in-doubles-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbdoubles-26-cral |
| Bryce Harper | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bryce-harper-lead-pro-baseball-in-doubles-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbdoubles-26-bhar |
| Rafael Devers | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rafael-devers-lead-pro-baseball-in-doubles-fo-kalshi-kxleadermlbdoubles-26-rdev |
| Gunnar Henderson | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gunnar-henderson-lead-pro-baseball-in-doubles-kalshi-kxleadermlbdoubles-26-ghen |
| Yordan Alvarez | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yordan-alvarez-lead-pro-baseball-in-doubles-f-kalshi-kxleadermlbdoubles-26-yalv |
| Kyle Tucker | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-tucker-lead-pro-baseball-in-doubles-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbdoubles-26-ktuc |
| Adley Rutschman | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-adley-rutschman-lead-pro-baseball-in-doubles-kalshi-kxleadermlbdoubles-26-arut |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | 8 |
| 2026-04-27 | 12 |
| 2026-05-02 | 13 |
| 2026-05-08 | 9 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Matt Olson +4pp 5→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Freddie Freeman −3pp 11→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 5% chance that Aaron Judge leads Major League Baseball in doubles during the 2026 regular season. Judge is primarily known as a power hitter rather than a doubles specialist, which explains the low probability. The market would shift based on Judge's playing time, whether he adjusts his swing mechanics to prioritize doubles over home runs, and how competitors like Luis Arraez or other contact-oriented hitters perform. The resolution will depend on official MLB statistics released at season's end, typically in late September or early October 2026 when final regular-season records are compiled.

### Key factors

- Aaron Judge's historical batting profile shows he averages roughly 25-30 doubles per season despite 200+ strikeouts annually, making him a middle-tier doubles contributor rather than a league leader
- Judge would need to significantly alter his approach to prioritize doubles over power, a strategic shift that contradicts his role as a slugger in the Yankees lineup
- Contact-focused hitters like Luis Arraez and other specialists typically lead in doubles, and several such players are likely to accumulate more doubles than Judge in 2026
- Judge's age (34 in 2026) and injury history affect both his availability and whether he maintains aggressive power-hitting mechanics
- MLB's final regular-season statistics become official in late September 2026, providing the definitive data for market resolution

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbdoubles
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leadermlbdoubles

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