# Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 15 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbera
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.538Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-22

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $815

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | 13¢ | ±0 | $699 | kalshi | /markets/will-paul-skenes-lead-pro-baseball-in-earned-run-a-kalshi-kxleadermlbera-26-pske |
| Jacob Misiorowski | 4¢ | — | $79 | kalshi | /markets/will-jacob-misiorowski-lead-pro-baseball-in-earned-kalshi-kxleadermlbera-26-jmis |
| Chris Sale | 5¢ | — | $38 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-sale-lead-pro-baseball-in-earned-run-av-kalshi-kxleadermlbera-26-csal |
| Cristopher Sánchez | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cristopher-snchez-lead-pro-baseball-in-earned-kalshi-kxleadermlbera-26-csan |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yoshinobu-yamamoto-lead-pro-baseball-in-earne-kalshi-kxleadermlbera-26-yyam |
| Shohei Ohtani | 19¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shohei-ohtani-lead-pro-baseball-in-earned-run-kalshi-kxleadermlbera-26-soht |
| Dylan Cease | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dylan-cease-lead-pro-baseball-in-earned-run-a-kalshi-kxleadermlbera-26-dcea |
| Framber Valdez | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-framber-valdez-lead-pro-baseball-in-earned-ru-kalshi-kxleadermlbera-26-fval |
| Hunter Brown | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hunter-brown-lead-pro-baseball-in-earned-run-kalshi-kxleadermlbera-26-hbro |
| George Kirby | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-george-kirby-lead-pro-baseball-in-earned-run-kalshi-kxleadermlbera-26-gkir |
| Cole Ragans | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cole-ragans-lead-pro-baseball-in-earned-run-a-kalshi-kxleadermlbera-26-crag |
| Jesús Luzardo | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jess-luzardo-lead-pro-baseball-in-earned-run-kalshi-kxleadermlbera-26-jluz |
| Blake Snell | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-blake-snell-lead-pro-baseball-in-earned-run-a-kalshi-kxleadermlbera-26-bsne |
| Logan Gilbert | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-logan-gilbert-lead-pro-baseball-in-earned-run-kalshi-kxleadermlbera-26-lgil |
| Hunter Greene | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hunter-greene-lead-pro-baseball-in-earned-run-kalshi-kxleadermlbera-26-hgre |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 12 |
| 2026-04-25 | 10 |
| 2026-05-02 | 6 |
| 2026-05-08 | 13 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Shohei Ohtani +13pp 6→19¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 5% chance that Yoshinobu Yamamoto will post the lowest earned run average among all Major League Baseball pitchers during the 2026 regular season. The probability reflects Yamamoto's proven elite pitching ability balanced against the difficulty of leading the entire league in ERA, where dozens of qualified starters compete. Factors driving this low probability include the depth of starting pitching talent available, with multiple Hall-of-Fame-caliber competitors, and the inherent variability in ERA caused by defense, ballpark effects, and health over a full season. The main catalyst will be Yamamoto's actual statistical performance once the 2026 regular season concludes in late September or early October, when final ERA leaders are calculated. Yamamoto's 2025 season performance and any injuries sustained before or during 2026 could shift market expectations significantly beforehand.

### Key factors

- Yamamoto's career ERA through 2025 and his 2026 season-to-date statistics relative to other top pitchers
- The number of qualified starting pitchers posting sub-3.00 ERAs during the 2026 regular season and how clustered elite performance becomes
- Injury status or decline of competing elite pitchers like Max Scherzer, Juan Soto's pitching peers, or other established ERA leaders
- Park effects and defensive support behind Yamamoto versus leading competitors throughout the 2026 season
- Total innings pitched by Yamamoto versus other contenders, as durability and workload affect final ERA calculations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbera
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leadermlbera

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.