# Will Pete Alonso lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 10% across 9 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbhr
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.842Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-22

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami | 15¢ | −3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-munetaka-murakami-lead-pro-baseball-in-home-r-kalshi-kxleadermlbhr-26-mmur |
| Shohei Ohtani | 5¢ | +1pp | $209 | kalshi | /markets/will-shohei-ohtani-lead-pro-baseball-in-home-runs-kalshi-kxleadermlbhr-26-soht |
| Yordan Alvarez | 7¢ | −1pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/will-yordan-alvarez-lead-pro-baseball-in-home-runs-kalshi-kxleadermlbhr-26-yalv |
| Aaron Judge | 39¢ | ±0 | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-judge-lead-pro-baseball-in-home-runs-fo-kalshi-kxleadermlbhr-26-ajud |
| Kyle Schwarber | 7¢ | ±0 | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-schwarber-lead-pro-baseball-in-home-runs-kalshi-kxleadermlbhr-26-ksch |
| Matt Olson | 8¢ | ±0 | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-matt-olson-lead-pro-baseball-in-home-runs-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbhr-26-mols |
| Ben Rice | 4¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-rice-lead-pro-baseball-in-home-runs-for-t-kalshi-kxleadermlbhr-26-bric |
| Mike Trout | 4¢ | +3pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-trout-lead-pro-baseball-in-home-runs-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbhr-26-mtro |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ronald-acua-jr-lead-pro-baseball-in-home-runs-kalshi-kxleadermlbhr-26-racu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 17 |
| 2026-04-25 | 15 |
| 2026-05-02 | 13 |
| 2026-05-08 | 15 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Matt Olson +5pp 3→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Yordan Alvarez −4pp 11→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Munetaka Murakami +3pp 15→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Munetaka Murakami −3pp 18→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Mike Trout +3pp 3→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates a 14% chance that Pete Alonso finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with more home runs than any other player. The market shows relatively modest confidence in Alonso leading baseball in home runs, with related contracts indicating he's viewed as a mid-tier contender for the title. Uncertainty around Alonso's HR leadership stems from his age and health trajectory, alongside the presence of elite competitors like Munetaka Murakami (17% implied probability), Yordan Alvarez (10%), and others. The resolution occurs at the conclusion of the 2026 regular season in late September or early October, when final home run totals are tallied. Key drivers of this probability include Alonso's seasonal performance trends, his team's lineup construction and playing time decisions, and the pace-of-play set by leading competitors mid-season.

### Key factors

- Pete Alonso's career home run rate and durability through a full 2026 season
- Competition from other elite home run hitters, particularly Murakami at 17% implied probability
- Contract indicating Alonso has 61% probability of hitting 30+ home runs, suggesting market expects production but not necessarily league-leading
- Number of games played and at-bats Alonso accumulates relative to competing players
- Changes in home run environment factors such as ball specifications, ballpark dimensions, or offensive talent distribution in 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbhr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leadermlbhr

## License

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