# Will Garrett Crochet lead Pro Baseball in strikeouts for the 2026 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 8 contracts — refreshed 40 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbks
Updated: 2026-07-27T07:20:48.754Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-22

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | 14¢ | ±0 | $834 | kalshi | /markets/will-dylan-cease-lead-pro-baseball-in-strikeouts-f-kalshi-kxleadermlbks-26-dcease84 |
| Jacob Misiorowski | 63¢ | +4pp | $498 | kalshi | /markets/will-jacob-misiorowski-lead-pro-baseball-in-strike-kalshi-kxleadermlbks-26-jmisiorowski32 |
| Cristopher Sánchez | 10¢ | −1pp | $223 | kalshi | /markets/will-cristopher-snchez-lead-pro-baseball-in-strike-kalshi-kxleadermlbks-26-csanchez61 |
| Chase Burns | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chase-burns-lead-pro-baseball-in-strikeouts-f-kalshi-kxleadermlbks-26-cburns26 |
| Chris Sale | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-sale-lead-pro-baseball-in-strikeouts-fo-kalshi-kxleadermlbks-26-csale51 |
| Joe Ryan | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-joe-ryan-lead-pro-baseball-in-strikeouts-for-kalshi-kxleadermlbks-26-jryan41 |
| Paul Skenes | 7¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paul-skenes-lead-pro-baseball-in-strikeouts-f-kalshi-kxleadermlbks-26-pskenes30 |
| Tarik Skubal | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tarik-skubal-lead-pro-baseball-in-strikeouts-kalshi-kxleadermlbks-26-tskubal29 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | 20 |
| 2026-07-13 | 18 |
| 2026-07-20 | 23 |
| 2026-07-27 | 28 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-21 · Paul Skenes +6pp 1→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-27 · Jacob Misiorowski +4pp 56→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · Jacob Misiorowski +3pp 57→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-26 · Jacob Misiorowski −3pp 59→56¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects a 5% probability that Garrett Crochet will lead Major League Baseball in strikeouts during the 2026 regular season. Crochet would need to accumulate the most strikeouts among all pitchers over the full season, competing against established aces and potential breakout performers. The low probability reflects that while Crochet is a talented young pitcher for the White Sox, leading the league in strikeouts requires sustained excellence, durability, and outperforming numerous other elite pitchers across 162 games. Key variables include Crochet's innings pitched total, whether he remains healthy throughout the season, and the strikeout rates of competitors. The outcome will be determined at the end of the 2026 MLB regular season in late September, when official statistics are finalized. Relative to other individual statistical leaders (like Mike Trout at 3% for home runs), this probability suggests moderate skepticism about Crochet winning the category.

### Key factors

- Crochet's career innings pitched average and injury history relative to 2026 availability
- Strikeout rate trend: whether Crochet maintains or improves upon his recent K/9 performance
- Competitive field: number and caliber of other elite pitchers expected to log significant innings in 2026
- White Sox team success and rotation usage: whether the team remains competitive enough to give Crochet deep playoff positioning and full regular season starts
- MLB-wide strikeout environment: whether the 2026 season favors high-velocity pitchers or produces league-wide strikeout inflation

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbks
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leadermlbks

## License

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