# Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 15 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbops
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.945Z
Category: general · Topic: oil
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-22

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 50¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-judge-lead-pro-baseball-in-ops-on-base-kalshi-kxleadermlbops-26-ajud |
| Shohei Ohtani | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shohei-ohtani-lead-pro-baseball-in-ops-on-bas-kalshi-kxleadermlbops-26-soht |
| Juan Soto | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-juan-soto-lead-pro-baseball-in-ops-on-base-pl-kalshi-kxleadermlbops-26-jsot |
| Yordan Alvarez | 17¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yordan-alvarez-lead-pro-baseball-in-ops-on-ba-kalshi-kxleadermlbops-26-yalv |
| Nick Kurtz | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nick-kurtz-lead-pro-baseball-in-ops-on-base-p-kalshi-kxleadermlbops-26-nkur |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vladimir-guerrero-jr-lead-pro-baseball-in-ops-kalshi-kxleadermlbops-26-vgue |
| Corey Seager | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-corey-seager-lead-pro-baseball-in-ops-on-base-kalshi-kxleadermlbops-26-csea |
| Ketel Marte | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ketel-marte-lead-pro-baseball-in-ops-on-base-kalshi-kxleadermlbops-26-kmar |
| Kyle Schwarber | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-schwarber-lead-pro-baseball-in-ops-on-ba-kalshi-kxleadermlbops-26-ksch |
| Bryce Harper | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bryce-harper-lead-pro-baseball-in-ops-on-base-kalshi-kxleadermlbops-26-bhar |
| Brent Rooker | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brent-rooker-lead-pro-baseball-in-ops-on-base-kalshi-kxleadermlbops-26-broo |
| Corbin Carroll | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-corbin-carroll-lead-pro-baseball-in-ops-on-ba-kalshi-kxleadermlbops-26-ccar |
| Junior Caminero | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-junior-caminero-lead-pro-baseball-in-ops-on-b-kalshi-kxleadermlbops-26-jcam |
| Freddie Freeman | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-freddie-freeman-lead-pro-baseball-in-ops-on-b-kalshi-kxleadermlbops-26-ffre |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-fernando-tatis-jr-lead-pro-baseball-in-ops-on-kalshi-kxleadermlbops-26-ftat |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 49 |
| 2026-04-23 | 30 |
| 2026-05-02 | 13 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Brent Rooker will finish the 2026 regular season with the highest OPS in Major League Baseball. At 7%, the market views this as unlikely but possible. Rooker's probability is substantially lower than Aaron Judge's (51%), reflecting Judge's established track record and higher profile. The key drivers are Rooker's historical offensive consistency, his age and development trajectory, and comparisons to other elite offensive players in baseball. The resolution will occur automatically when the 2026 regular season concludes in late September or early October, when final statistics are compiled. Between now and then, Rooker's month-to-month offensive performance and injuries to other top contenders will move this probability.

### Key factors

- Rooker's career OPS through May 2026 compared to historical leaders like Judge, Murakami, and Alvarez in similar timeframes
- Rooker's plate discipline metrics (strikeout rate, walk rate) relative to other high-OPS performers in the league
- Injury status of competing players, particularly Judge (51% contract), who currently leads the OPS markets
- Year-over-year improvement or decline in Rooker's slugging percentage and on-base percentage trend
- Full-season availability: Rooker's games played projection versus other candidates over the remaining ~150 games

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/leadermlbops
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=leadermlbops
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

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